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BLBG: U.S. Markets Wrap: Stocks Fall, Natural Gas, Dollar Advance
 
U.S. stocks slid the most in two weeks as analysts cut earnings estimates for General Electric Co., while natural gas and silver advanced and the dollar rose.

GE lost 5.8 percent after presenting a more “sober” assessment of earnings, according to investors. Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led financial shares to the biggest drop among the 10 main industries in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. American International Group Inc. slumped 22 percent as 19 states began probing its bonuses.

The S&P 500 tumbled 2 percent to 768.54, trimming its advance from a 12-year low on March 9 to less than 14 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 122.42 points, or 1.7 percent, to 7,278.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.8 percent to 1,457.27. European shares rose and Asia’s regional benchmark closed lower.

“How can you justify a 20 percent higher market when things haven’t gotten 20 percent better?” said Richard Campagna, who oversees $600 million as chief investment officer at 300 North Capital LLC in Pasadena, California. “The economy may be bottoming, but it’s still struggling.”

Today’s decline came at the end of the market’s first back- to-back weekly advance of the year. The S&P 500 rebounded as much as 17 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 as banking shares surged. The S&P 500 Financials Index had gained as much as 50 percent on speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over after Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they were profitable in January and February.

Buying Bonds

Banks rallied on March 18 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement it will buy $1 trillion of bonds to lower borrowing costs for companies and consumers, only to erase that advance over the past two days.

GE tumbled 59 cents to $9.54. Analysts including Citigroup’s Jeffrey Sprague, Credit Suisse AG’s Nicole Parent, Morgan Stanley’s Scott Davis and Deutsche Bank AG’s Nigel Coe cut their estimates for 2009 per-share profit. In a six-hour review of its finance arm for investors yesterday, GE backed a previous $5 billion target for GE Capital’s earnings while saying profit would be closer to $2.5 billion if this month’s economic conditions prevail for the full year.

Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase led financials to a 5.3 percent decline, the biggest among the S&P 500’s 10 main industry groups. The group retreated 8 percent yesterday. The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday approved a 90 percent tax on bonuses for employees of companies that received bailout funds. The Senate plans to vote next week on a 70 percent tax.

TARP Money

“The banks that are outperforming today are the ones that didn’t take TARP money,” on the view that they will attract the most talented employees, said Anton Schutz, president of Mendon Capital Advisors Corp. in Rochester, New York. He was referring to the government’s Troubled Assets Relief Program. Schutz manages $130 million of financial stocks.

Bank of America, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, fell 11 percent to $6.19 for the biggest drop in the Dow average. Wells Fargo, the largest on the U.S. West Coast, lost 9.3 percent to $13.99. JPMorgan Chase, the biggest by market value, slid 7.2 percent to $23.15.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodity futures added 0.4 percent after surging 5.3 percent yesterday. Natural gas gained 1.9 percent as of 4:47 p.m., cotton climbed 2.8 percent and silver added 1.8 percent. The CRB index increased 7.1 percent this week, the most in two months, as a record decline in the dollar bolstered demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation.

Floor Trading

Crude oil for April delivery fell 55 cents, or 1.1 percent, to settle at $51.06 a barrel at 2:56 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil touched $52.25 yesterday, the highest since Dec. 1. Prices rose 10 percent this week and are up 14 percent this year.

The April contract expired today. The more-active May futures contract rose 3 cents to $52.07 a barrel.

The dollar rose as some traders bet the slump this week, stoked by the Federal Reserve’s plan to start buying Treasuries, was overdone given the outlook for the U.S. economy.

The U.S. Dollar Index in New York, which tracks the currency against six others, was up 0.9 percent to 83.841 at 3:09 p.m. in New York, its first increase in nine days. The index trades on ICE Futures in New York. The dollar rose 0.8 percent to $1.3552 per euro from $1.3665 yesterday.

“There isn’t justification for crude prices to stay above $50,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale SA in London. “We still have a weak economy; we still have weak demand.”

Weekly Gain

Treasuries slipped, paring the biggest weekly gain since December. The yield on the benchmark 10-year rose five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.65 percent at 4:15 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market data. The price of the 2.75 security due in February 2019 fell 15/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 29/32.

Still, Treasury 10-year notes headed for the biggest weekly gain since December after the Fed’s plan to buy as much as $300 billion in government debt spurred the largest one-day surge in more than four decades.

U.S. securities advanced this week as traders bet the Fed’s program will put a ceiling on yields after the worst start to a year for Treasuries since 1980. Notes rose the most as the Fed said March 18 its purchases will concentrate on two- to 10-year maturities. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech policy makers are “generally encouraged” by the market’s reaction.

“We know the Fed clearly has an interest in buying the market,” said Carl Lantz, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, one of 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “I can’t imagine the market will sell off that much.”

The 10-year yield fell 25 basis points this week, the most since the five days ended Dec. 19. The two-year note’s yield declined nine basis points.
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