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AFP: OIL FUTURES: Crude Steady As Market Waits On Treasury Plan
 
Crude oil futures continued to build on last week's gains Monday, but moves higher were tentative as traders waited for details of a U.S. Treasury plan aimed at mopping up banks' toxic assets.

Events in the wider financial markets remain a key driver shaping oil prices starting the new week, and participants suggested that an announcement on the plan from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, due at 1245 GMT, will be pivotal for price developments again Monday.

"Whether the recent enthusiasm will have any staying power is partly going to depend on the U.S. government's bank rescue plan," brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates said in a note.

"A credible program to take toxic assets off the banks' books could support equity markets further, which in turn would be constructive for oil."

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Geithner's three-pronged program envisions the creation of a series of public-private investments to soak up $500 billion, and maybe as much as $1 trillion, in troubled loans and securities at the heart of the financial crisis.

At 1120 GMT, the front-month May Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was up 29 cents at $51.51 a barrel.

The front-month May light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 13 cents higher at $52.20 a barrel.

The ICE's gasoil contract for April delivery was up $7.75 at $443.50 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for April delivery was up 70 points at 146.40 cents a gallon.

Alongside stronger equity markets, movements in the U.S. dollar have also reasserted their influence over crude prices, combining to sponsor Nymex crude to their highest levels since the beginning of December. While oil fundamentals - such as current weak global demand and well-stocked inventories - might not support advances in crude prices, firmer equities and a weaker dollar could bolster sentiment and contribute to further crude oil gains, analysts suggested.

Both European and Asian equity bourses traded in positive territory Monday during optimism the Treasury plan will prompt banks to start lending more widely again and boost credit conditions in the U.S. economy as a whole. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was lower against most major currencies.

"The recent inclination to bid up commodities as both an inflation hedge and a weak dollar play is clearly what is driving the energy market right now," said Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global in New York. "But we believe that this approach will ultimately prove unsustainable in the absence of a rebound in industrial demand amid prevailing recessionary conditions."

Industrial action could provide some fundamental support for prices this week, with strike action in Nigeria and Brazil potentially affecting crude oil output.

Nigeria's oil workers said Saturday they will begin a three-day warning strike Wednesday to protest a plan to remove a subsidy on petroleum products and the growing insecurity in the Niger Delta region of the country. Unions in Brazil were reported to have begun a five-day strike Monday, in a protest at pay and working conditions, although the strikes weren't aiming to halt production completely.

"Many unions' strikes will need to be watched this week, although they would only have a supply impact if prolonged more than announced," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Swiss consultancy, Petromatrix.

Source