First gain after six monthly declines surprises economists Demand for machinery and other capital goods rose in February, driving orders for durable goods up 3.4%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The unexpected rise in orders for big-ticket items marked the first increase after six straight monthly drops, an indication that domestic demand may have bottomed. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for total orders to fall 1.2%. See Economic Calendar. The monthly durable-goods figures, although extremely volatile, are seen as key leading indicators for tracking the path of economic growth. Offsetting the gain in February somewhat was a sharp downward revision to orders in January. The government said that orders for durable goods fell a revised 7.3% in January, much worse than the previous estimate of a 4.5% decline. But the gain in February did not seem to be a fluke or due to one factor. Many sectors posted gains. Read full report. Orders for capital goods -- the kind of equipment that businesses need to increase or modernize their productive capacity -- jumped 11% in February after a 14.8% decline in January. Machinery orders rose 13.5% in February, the biggest gain in just under five years. The sector, which includes construction equipment, turbines, industrial machinery and oil-drilling equipment, was down 26% in the past year. Transportation orders rose a surprising 2.0% in February. This follows an 11.9% drop in the previous month. The sector was helped by a sharp increase in defense aircraft. Orders for autos and commercial airliners were down sharply. Excluding transportation goods, February's orders rose 3.9%, the most since August 2005. Electronics orders rose 1.6%. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.5% last month. This is the seventh straight monthly decline. Shipments of semiconductors fell 21.2% in February. Inventories of durable goods fell 0.9% on the month. February details Orders for core capital equipment -- that is, nondefense, nonaircraft capital equipment -- rose 6.6%. Shipments increased 0.6%. Orders for primary metals decreased 0.6%, while shipments fell 1.4%. Orders for fabricated metals rose 1.5%. Shipments dropped 0.5%.

Source