AP; METALS-Shanghai copper eyes 5-month high after US data
Data lifts metals sentiment, ShFE copper up 1.7 pct
* Copper in London and Shanghai shy of recent 5-mth highs
* Rising aluminium cancelled warrants lend short-term support
SINGAPORE, April 2 - Shanghai copper rose almost 2 percent on Thursday, short of recent five-month highs, buoyed by gains in London and a firmer tone in equities markets in the wake of a few glimpses of hope in recent U.S. data.
The rising tide lifted other boats than metals, sending Japan's Nikkei up 3.5 percent and Asian stocks outside Japan almost 4 percent higher.
Shanghai copper for June delivery rose 570 yuan to 33,830 yuan a tonne at midday, while three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose $20 at $4,080.
Earlier Shanghai copper touched 34,080 yuan and both markets are nearing recent five-month highs at 34,580 yuan and $4,168 respectively.
"The data was a bit mixed from the United States, but it seems that investors are grasping tightly onto positive news while leaving the thornier jobs numbers alone," a dealer in Singapore said.
"We'll be keeping an eye out for anything substantive from the G20 meeting, but more important in my view, will be U.S. payrolls numbers on Friday. If those show the same big declines as the ADP, it will be harder to keep a positive focus."
Data on Wednesday showed a modest rise in pending sales of existing U.S. homes, but a report by ADP showing the U.S. private sector lost nearly three quarters of a million jobs in March kept exuberance under control.
But with the contraction in U.S. factory activity slowing in March, and U.S. construction spending falling at a slower-than- expected rate in February, investor confidence was creeping higher.
"(Former U.S.) President James Madison said: 'The circulation of confidence is better than the circulation of money,' and the steep climbs we have seen in commodities this year suggest some confidence has returned," a trader in Melbourne said.
"But my worry is that there are more problems out there -- a collapse by one of the big U.S. automakers would stop any circulating confidence dead in its tracks, for example."
LME copper inventories rose on Wednesday, up 2,150 tonnes to 501,775 tonnes. But outflows should resume as cancelled warrants rose to 29,375 tonnes from 26,475 tonnes, creeping back towards the highs in early March above 55,000 tonnes.
Market attention is now drifting to Shanghai inventories where traders said strong nearby prices suggested another decrease was on the cards when the data is released on Friday.
LME aluminium fell $5 to $1,380, while Shanghai prices fell 0.6 percent to 12,565 yuan.
Levels of cancelled warrants have jumped especially, in Asia in recent days with some 7 percent of the 820,000 tonnes in the region tagged for delivery. Globally, 2.7 percent of the 3.48 million tonnes are on cancelled warrants.
"We are seeing a big increase in cancelled warrants, mostly out of Asia and most of that metal will go to China. That's not a sign that domestic consumption is up," Barclays Capital analyst Yingxi Yu said.
She said domestic supplies were tight, not from genuine demand but by stockpiling by the Chinese government and delays in metal clearing customs.
"The strength is unlikely to last. Higher domestic prices are already encouraging smelter restarts which is apparent in rising alumina prices."
The premium for Shanghai metal was around 1,500 yuan above LME prices, including China' 17 percent VAT, short of a recent record above 2,200 yuan but still enough to draw metal in. Base metals prices at 0336 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Pct chg 09 LME Cu 4080.00 20.00 +0.49 3060.00 33.33 SHFE Cu* 33830.00 570.00 +1.71 23840.00 41.90 LME Alum 1380.00 -5.00 -0.36 1535.00 -10.10 SHFE Alum* 12565.00 -80.00 -0.63 11540.00 8.88 COMEX Cu** 187.10 2.55 +1.38 139.50 34.12 LME Zinc 1310.00 -2.00 -0.15 1208.00 8.44 SHFE Zinc 11675.00 60.00 +0.52 10120.00 15.37 LME Nickel 9980.00 -120.00 -1.19 11700.00 -14.70 LME Lead 1235.00 15.00 +1.23 999.00 23.62 LME Tin 10250.00 -200.00 -1.91 10700.00 -4.21 LME/Shanghai arb^ -1252 Dollar/yuan 6.8329 \ 6.8339 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month