BLBG: Euro Climbs as Manufacturing, Services Report Beats Estimates
The euro rose against the yen after a report showed an index of European services and manufacturing industries increased more than economists forecast, adding to evidence the region’s slump is easing.
Japan’s currency fell versus higher-yielding counterparts including the Australian and New Zealand dollars after Credit Suisse Group AG reported first-quarter profit exceeding analysts’ predictions. The Canadian dollar gained versus the greenback before the Bank of Canada says what additional measures it may adopt to boost the economy.
“The improvement of the indicators does appear that the pace of the economic decline might be slowing, even if it hasn’t turned around the corner,” Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets Inc., a unit of Canada’s biggest bank by assets. “It’s supporting the euro at the margin.”
The euro increased 0.3 percent to 127.87 yen at 9:39 a.m. in New York, from 127.48 yesterday. The euro traded at $1.3013, compared with $1.3005, after falling as low as $1.2980. The yen depreciated 0.2 percent to 98.23 per dollar, from 98.01.
The Swiss franc gained 0.1 percent to 1.1625 per dollar and erased its loss versus the euro, trading at 1.5123, after Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said “patience” is needed to evaluate how current measures will help the economy.
The comments were taken as a sign the central bank wouldn’t intervene to weaken the franc again, according to Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist in London at UBS AG, the second-largest foreign-exchange trader.
European Index
A composite index of euro-region services and manufacturing industries was at 40.5 in April, compared with 38.3 in the previous month, according to Markit Economics, which surveys purchasing managers. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for an increase to 38.9. A reading below 50 signals contraction.
“It’s premature to call the end of the slowdown,” said David Powell, a currency strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London. “A stabilization of the indicators at a low level is still not growth, and people remain reluctant to get too long the euro.”
The 16-member currency will fall to $1.28 and trade at 128 yen by the end of June as risk aversion intensifies, Powell said. A long position is a bet an asset price will increase.
IMF Outlook
The Washington-based International Monetary Fund said in a forecast yesterday the world economy will shrink 1.3 percent this year, compared with its January projection of 0.5 percent growth. The IMF predicted expansion of 1.9 percent next year, revising an earlier 3 percent estimate.
The Japanese currency weakened against the euro after Credit Suisse, the biggest Swiss bank by market value, said net income was 2 billion francs ($1.7 billion), twice the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“Asian stock markets, a gauge for risk aversion, rebounded following Credit Suisse’s earnings news,” said Tomohiro Nishida, a foreign-exchange dealer at Chuo Mitsui Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. “The bounce back of stocks triggered buying of the euro and other higher-yielding currencies.”
The yen slid against all of its 16 most actively traded counterparts except the South African rand and Mexican peso on bets investors will fund trades with the Japanese currency. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was little changed.
Australia’s dollar rose 1.3 percent to 70.06 yen, from 69.14 yen yesterday, erasing an earlier loss of 0.7 percent. The New Zealand dollar strengthened 1.3 percent to 55.16 yen.
Bank of Canada
Canada’s dollar reversed yesterday’s 0.3 percent loss against the U.S. currency before the Bank of Canada outlines new rules today for the possible use of extraordinary measures if the economy needs another boost. Policy makers cut the target lending rate to 0.25 percent this week.
“The Canadian dollar appears to be trading more in line with risk appetite and commodity prices rather than monetary policy,” Barclays Plc analysts led by David Woo in London wrote in a note today.
The Canadian dollar gained 0.2 percent to C$1.2369 per U.S. dollar and advanced 0.4 percent to 79.35 yen.