Yesterday’s trade recommendations scored two dead-center bullseyes, each calling a rally top within a single tick. In Gold, we were looking for the June Comex contract to leap sharply to 910.30. When the dust had settled, the futures had traded as high as 910.40, the peak of an $18 rally. Although the high fell just shy of the 911.90 print needed to refresh the bullish trend, it seemed a foregone conclusion the futures would get there, and soon, since they were maintaining altitude in after-hours trading following a weak pullback from the intraday peak. Comex Junes were an opportune short sale for day traders glued to the 910.30 target; now, however, if they continue rising to at least 911.90 as we expect, bears had better run for cover. A more detailed forecast appears in tonight’s touts section, so check it out.
June Crude’s rally proved equally felicitous, since it peaked just a penny below a Hidden Pivot target we’d flagged at 49.93. The analysis had included a detailed trading strategy, given as follows: “June Crude appears to be making a turn from a so-far low at 46.72. The rally projects to 49.93… [so] you can get short at 49.91 with a stop-loss as tight as 11 cents. Switch to a 15-cent trailing stop on a pullback to 49.58, and use 49.30 as a minimum objective.” In the actual event, after hitting the 49.93 target, crude sold off sharply to 48.52, yielding a maximum theoretical profit on the trade of around $1,400 per contract. In practice, a single contract tied rigidly to a trailing stop would have produced a gain closer to around $300.
Frankenstein’s EEG
Now, with Friday Follies coming up, we hesitate to second-guess the broad averages, since they have been describing the kind of price patterns this week one might expect to find on Frankenstein’s EEG tape. Indeed, the stock market’s price action of late has been about as close an analog as we could conceive of for the brain waves of a deranged, quasi-human monster. That said, we could see the E-Mini S&P futures falling to 809.75 today if sellers dominate. That would be equivalent to a 300-point loss in the Dow Industrials. Caveat emptor!
