BLBG: Oil Rises a Fourth Day as Dollar, Equities Trump Demand Concern
Crude oil rose for a fourth day as advancing European equities and a weaker dollar outweighed concern the recession will continue to cut fuel demand.
In Iraq, holder of the world’s third-largest crude reserves, a double suicide bombing in Baghdad killed 25 people during a second day of violence. Oil earlier fell on signs that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn’t cutting supplies fast enough to reduce the glut in inventories. U.S. crude stockpiles are at their highest in nearly 19 years.
“While currency or equity moves are lending support to oil markets currently, a reality check will have to be made given the development of a large crude inventory overhang, and more downgrades to economic growth,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London.
Crude oil for June delivery increased as much as 52 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $50.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $50 a barrel at 12:05 p.m. London time. Prices are heading for a 0.6 percent weekly drop.
Crude has declined 67 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11 as global demand has dropped.
“Prices are likely to trade around current levels until hard evidence emerges that the various stimulus packages are improving oil demand and that OPEC restraint is contributing to a fall in inventories,” said Gareth Lewis-Davies, oil market analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort in London.
OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri wants the group to fully implement supply cuts agreed last year before it discusses any further reductions, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing an interview with El-Badri.
Further Action
Still, the group won’t hesitate to take further action if needed at its next meeting on May 28, El-Badri said, according to Dow. OPEC isn’t formally obligated to reach its output targets before announcing new cuts.
OPEC will trim crude oil shipments by 0.6 percent in the four weeks ending May 9, the smallest drop since February, tanker-tracker Oil Movements said yesterday.
Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.4 percent to 192.24 at 10:46 a.m. in London, trimming this week’s decline to 2.4 percent. The dollar dropped 1.2 percent to $1.3232 against the euro, making assets priced in the U.S. currency more attractive as a currency hedge.
U.S. crude stockpiles grew for a seventh week last week, by 3.86 million barrels to 370.6 million, an Energy Department report showed on April 22. That’s the highest since September 1990.
Fuel Demand
Total daily fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, averaged 18.5 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended April 17, down 6.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the department.
Nippon Oil Corp., Japan’s largest refiner, will cut fuel production by about 6 percent next month from year-earlier levels as the recession in Japan weakens petroleum demand, the company said today.
Crude oil may decline next week on speculation that U.S. inventories will increase because the recession has cut consumption.
Sixteen of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 46 percent, said futures will fall through May 1. Eleven respondents, or 31 percent, forecast that oil prices will be little changed, and eight said the market will rise. Last week, 52 percent of analysts expected prices to be little changed.
Brent crude oil for June settlement was at $50.35 a barrel, 24 cents higher, at 11:43 a.m. London time on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.