BLBG: Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Fall 0.8%, Less Than Forecast
Orders for U.S.-made durable goods in March fell less than forecast, adding to signs the economic slump is easing.
The 0.8 percent decrease reported by the Commerce Department today in Washington compares with an anticipated 1.5 percent drop, according to the median of 68 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The news was tempered by revisions to February figures that showed a much smaller gain than the government previously projected.
Economists project any economic recovery in the second half of the year may be muted as government measures to revive growth will take time to gain traction. General Motors Corp. is planning on idling 13 plants for multiple weeks from May through July, and other companies may keep cutting spending and slash jobs until demand here and abroad shows sustained gains.
``We are no longer in free fall,'' Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report. ``There are signs of stabilization. I'd look for a gradual recovery in orders.''
Economists expected a 1.5 percent drop in orders, according to the median of 68 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after a previously reported 3.5 percent gain in February. Estimates ranged from a decline of 4.9 percent to a gain of 1 percent.
Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.6 percent, also less than anticipated, after a 2 percent gain in February that was smaller than previously estimated.
Influence on GDP
Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, climbed 1.5 percent after a 4.3 percent gain the prior month that was also smaller than previously estimated. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, dropped 1.7 percent after a 0.1 percent increase in February. The slump may prompt some economists to lower forecasts for first-quarter GDP.
Orders excluding defense equipment decreased 0.6 percent and bookings for military gear dropped 14 percent.
Orders for transportation equipment declined 1.4, led by a 1.7 percent drop among autos. Demand for commercial aircraft, often a volatile category, increased 4.4 percent after plunging 32 percent the prior month.
Boeing Co., the world's second-largest commercial-jet builder, this week lowered its 2009 profit forecast while reaffirming its full-year delivery schedule. The Chicago-based company got 28 new orders through March and had 32 cancellations. Carriers deferred deliveries by one to two years on 60 planes that were scheduled for production in 2010 and 2011, Boeing said.
Computers, Machinery
Orders for computers and machinery decreased following gains in February, while bookings for electrical equipment rose, today's report showed.
Eaton Corp., a Cleveland-based maker of circuit breakers and fuel pumps, this week posted a first-quarter loss and cut its 2009 profit forecast as sales sagged.
Overseas demand also is sliding. The global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than previously thought as financial markets take longer to stabilize, according to a forecast by the International Monetary Fund this week. The world economy will shrink 1.3 percent this year, the lender said.
Still, the ``sharp decline'' in the U.S. economy may be slowing, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this month. President Barack Obama cited signs of progress while warning that 2009 ``will continue to be a difficult year.''
General Electric Co., whose businesses span power-plant turbines, jet engines and private-label credit cards, said the outlook is looking less dire.
``While the economy is still difficult, we are starting to firm,'' Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said in an April 20 interview with company-owned CNBC. ``We are starting to see, I think, some signs that businesses are ready to invest again.''