The dollar may fall to its record low of 79.75 yen by the end of this year, said Masashi Hashimoto, a currency analyst in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., citing trading patterns. The greenback may decline 19 percent against the yen in 2009 should the currency close “significantly” below the three-month moving average of 98.41 this month, Hashimoto said. The dollar has so far failed to strengthen above resistance levels at 101.41, 101.44 and 101.67, he said. “The medium-term downtrend that has lasted since June 2007 would be confirmed if the three-month moving average is broken on a monthly closing basis,” Hashimoto said. “Ideally, the currency should drop beyond that moving average by two to three yen to be a clear signal.” The U.S. currency traded at 98.53 yen as of 6:40 a.m. in London from 98.31 in New York yesterday. The dollar reached a 13-year low of 87.13 yen in January, and touched a post-World War II low of 79.75 in April 1995. The 101.41 yen level is the 23.6 percent retracement of the decline from the August 1998 high to the January 2009 low, and 101.67 yen is the 38.2 percent retracement of the drop from the August 2008 high to the January low, according to a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence. The 101.44 level represents the April 6 high, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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