Gasoline futures may lead crude oil, heating oil and gasoil as much as 5 percent lower should the motor fuel drop below its eight-day moving average, a director of PVM Oil Associates Ltd. said. The five main oil contracts, including U.S. and North Sea crude, all traded below their eight-day averages during intraday trading yesterday, with Brent crude settling below the average. Gasoline is the best-performing energy commodity, having gained 71 percent this year. June gasoline was little changed at $1.7208 a gallon in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:26 a.m. London time, versus its eight- day average of $1.6851. “They all have to fall” below the eight-day average, “but gasoline will give you the clue,” PVM’s Robin Bieber said in a telephone interview from London. “Gasoline is the key, leading the market.” A drop below the eight-day average would push all the contracts as low as their 13-day averages, Bieber said. June gasoline is currently 2 percent above its eight-day average and 6 percent above the 13-day. Nymex heating oil has already fallen below its eight-day average, while the Brent crude and gasoil contracts on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange remain above. The main Nymex crude contract, West Texas Intermediate, which is trading at $58.86 a barrel, may not drop as much as the other oil contracts, Bieber said. PVM is an oil brokerage and analysis company. “The slight problem here is that WTI has very-good breakout points at $56.10,” he said, referring to levels where more buying may emerge. The 13-day average is $56.00. Gasoline futures rose as far as $1.7290 a gallon during trading yesterday, the highest level since October. Gasoline, also known as reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, may also weaken if it closes below $1.7096, Bieber wrote in a report today. That price represents the contract’s May 7 high and is close to the daily highs of May 8 and May 9 as well.

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