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BLBG: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall 13,000 to 623,000 (Update1)
 
Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the biggest rounds of firings may be over.

Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 623,000 in the week ended May 23, lower than forecast, from a revised 636,000 the prior week, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose to a record in the prior week for the 17th straight time, reflecting restrained hiring.

Fewer job losses reduce the risk that consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will falter, delaying the economic recovery projected for later this year. Still, companies will be reluctant to add workers and increase production until sales show sustained gains.

“The pace of job declines is lessening,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “This along with some other indicators points to a trough in the recession.”

Another government report showed orders for U.S. durable goods jumped more than forecast in April with a rebound in auto demand and a surge in defense spending.

Increase in Orders

The 1.9 percent increase reported by the Commerce Department today in Washington was the largest since December 2007, and followed a revised 2.1 percent drop in March that was more than twice as large as previously estimated. Excluding transportation equipment, orders climbed 0.8 percent.

Jobless claims were projected to fall to 628,000 from 631,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 600,000 to 650,000.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 626,750 from 629,750.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 5.1 percent in the week ended May 16, the highest since December 1982, from 5 percent the prior week.

States and Territories

Thirty-seven states and territories reported a decrease in new claims for the week ended May 16, while 16 reported an increase. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- slows.

While the economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, firings are slowing. Payrolls fell by 539,000 workers in April after dropping by 699,000 the prior month.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month projected the jobless rate, currently at a 25-year high of 8.9 percent, will climb to 9.6 percent by the end of 2009. This month’s jobs report is due June 5.

Claims in coming weeks may climb amid restructuring in the automotive industry. General Motors Corp. faces a June 1 deadline to achieve a swap of bondholder debt for equity and to win concessions from the United Auto Workers union, or file for bankruptcy as Chrysler LLC has.

Auto workers aren’t the only ones losing jobs. KeyCorp, the second-largest bank based in Ohio, will cut more than 300 positions this quarter, Chief Executive Officer Henry Meyer said at the company’s annual meeting this month.

For now, concern over job losses is one reason consumers are limiting spending. Saks Inc., a U.S. luxury-goods retailer, reported a smaller-than-forecast loss for the quarter ended May 2, and said while promotions are less aggressive compared with the end of last year, the economic environment remains challenging.

“We expect that the macroeconomic picture will remain extremely difficult for the balance of 2009, if not beyond, and we’re continuing to plan accordingly,” Chief Executive Officer Stephen Sadove said on a conference call on May 19.

Source