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ID: Gold, metals hold steady as dollar trades mixed
 
NEW YORK — Gold and other metals held steady Wednesday as the dollar traded mixed against other currencies, but oil prices continued to climb.

The dollar showed some strength against the euro in afternoon trading, which curbed some of the recent gains in metal prices.

Oil prices, however, continued to rally, surging to a fresh high for the year above $71 a barrel as traders made bets that the end of the recession is close at hand.

Commodities have been rising in recent weeks as the economic outlook improves and the U.S. dollar weakens. Investors fear that a weaker U.S. dollar will spark inflation and drive prices for all sorts of basic materials higher.

"The inflation trade is on in full force," said Matt Zeman, head trader at LaSalle Futures in Chicago. And markets around the world have begun to take notice.

Shares of energy and basic materials companies have benefited from the uptick in prices, giving a boost to markets in Europe and Asia in recent days.

There are already concerns that another bubble is forming in the commodities market, which could seriously impede a recovery if it bursts. Last summer, both traders and consumers watched aghast as oil prices soared to more than $140 a barrel, only to come crashing down to just over $30 in a matter of months.

While a pullback is certainly possible, analysts don't foresee as precipitous a drop in prices as last fall. For now, the expectation is for prices to continue to march higher, so long as the economic data continues to suggest a recovery and the dollar remains weak.

"Does the dollar hold support or do we start going lower?" Zeman said. "That is going to dictate prices over the short term."

Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research for MF Global in Chicago, noted that prices, on average, have only recovered a portion of the decline experienced last fall, so there is still room to move higher.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a widely used measure of the global commodities markets, plunged about 56 percent from early July to early December last year. Since then, the index has only recovered by about 25 percent.

On Wednesday, gold for August delivery was unchanged at $954.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Other precious metals rose slightly. July silver gained 8.5 cents to $15.2250 an ounce, and July platinum added $15.30 to $l,273.20 an ounce.

Among industrial metals, aluminum slipped 1.3 percent on the Comex, while July copper futures rose less than a penny to $2.3670 a pound on the Nymex.

Adding to crude's advance on Wednesday was new government data that showed an uptick in U.S. demand for gasoline and enthusiasm over the potential for more spending in China. A report showed prices fell in May in China for a fourth straight month, which could give the Chinese government more room to carry out a major stimulus plan.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $1.32 to settle at $71.33 a barrel.

Gasoline futures gained 4.86 cents to $2.0153 a gallon, while heating oil futures rose 2.5 cents to $1.8326 a gallon.

Natural gas for July delivery slipped 2.3 cents to $3.7080 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Natural gas has been the one energy commodity that has been lagging. But as the hurricane season gets underway, analysts see the potential for prices to pop.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, grain prices were mixed following a crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture that was roughly in line with expectations.

Wheat prices have been pressured as of late by a glut of worldwide supply, said Darrell Jobman, senior market analyst at TraderPlanet.com., which could put pressure on the prices of other crops.

July wheat futures dropped 17.75 cents to $5.96 a bushel, while corn for July delivery fell 8.25 cents to $4.3575 a bushel.

Soybeans, however, have outperformed other grains, rising on evidence of strong demand out of China and a falloff in supply. July soybeans added 2.5 cents to $12.46 a bushel.

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