BLBG: Oil Futures May Fall on Higher Supply, Low Demand, Survey Shows
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may fall as gasoline inventories increase and the recession curbs fuel consumption.
Twenty-one of 38 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said futures will decline through July 2. Nine respondents, or 24 percent, forecast that the market will be little changed and eight said prices will rise. Last week, 44 percent of analysts said oil would fall.
Gasoline inventories climbed 3.87 million barrels to 208.9 million last week, the Energy Department said on June 24. Total U.S. daily fuel demand averaged 18.3 million barrels in the four weeks ended June 19.
“The crude oil market is overvalued relative to its high inventories and weak demand,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The price rally of the past three months has priced in an economic recovery that, so far, isn’t here.”
Crude oil for August delivery rose 68 cents, or 1 percent, to $70.23 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures have fallen 4.1 percent from a seven-month high of $73.23 reached on June 11.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.