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BLBG: Copper Heads for Weekly Gain on Speculation Economy Rebounding
 



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Copper Heads for Weekly Gain on Speculation Economy Rebounding
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By Anna Stablum

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Copper headed for a weekly gain in New York and London on speculation demand is recovering and after Chinese stockpiles fell for the first time in four weeks.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this week raised its forecast for the economies of its 30 member nations for the first time in two years. Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly jumped last month. Copper inventories shrank in China, the world’s largest user.

“There is no doubt we have seen the bottom in terms of the industrial cycle,” Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said by phone. “The investor inflows into the complex have been pretty strong. People continue to believe in the commodity story as a long-term investment play.”

Copper for September delivery advanced 0.7 percent to $2.3325 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division by 8:29 a.m. local time. The contract has added 3.2 percent this week. Copper for three-month delivery eased $10, or 0.2 percent, to $5,120 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Commodities attracted $15 billion of investment in the second quarter, two-thirds of it into indexes tracking raw materials, Barclays Capital said in a report yesterday.

Barclays said this week it expected Chinese imports of refined copper and copper in concentrate to reach 1.6 million tons in the second half, about 900,000 tons less than in the first six months. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the LME have fallen 20 percent this year and dropped another 0.5 percent today.

Fund Flows

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, aluminum declined 0.6 percent at $1,675.50 a ton. Prices have gained 30 percent from the year’s closing low of $1,288 on Feb. 23.

“Aluminum is going to be one of the best performers next month, because the downside is very limited,” Smith said.

Production costs for the metal average about $1,500, which would limit supply should prices decline, and some of the metal in warehouses is tied up in financing deals, curbing its availability, Smith said.

Nickel was 1.7 percent higher at $15,948 a ton, the highest intraday price since Oct. 2 and taking this year’s rally to 37 percent.

Market fundamentals for stainless steel, nickel’s largest user, remain unclear, David Cotterell, a Toronto-based analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said yesterday in a report. The bank raised its 2009 price forecast for nickel for immediate delivery by 26 percent to $5.8 a pound ($12,787 a ton).

In 2010, the price is expected to average $7.5 ($16,535 a ton), up 36 percent from a previous forecast, BMO said.

Lead rose 0.2 percent to $1,742 a ton, while zinc declined 1.5 percent to $1,620 a ton. Tin fell 0.1 percent to $14,830 a ton.
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