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BLBG: Gasoline to Trade Above Heating Oil Into October: Chart of Day
 
By Barbara Powell


July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Wholesale gasoline prices will maintain a premium over heating oil through October, two months longer than usual, because of record supplies and low demand for distillates, said Sander Cohan, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows Cohan’s projection that reformulated gasoline, known as RBOB, will trade at a 1.67 cent- a-gallon premium to heating oil in the New York Harbor spot market during October, after averaging a discount of 18.46 cents for that month between 2003 and 2007.

“Diesel demand remains weak throughout much of the year, and heating oil markets will be well supplied heading into the fall, leading to overall weak spreads through the third quarter,” Cohan said. “While in 2008, heating oil strength dominated gasoline, we are finding the reverse for most of 2009.”

Investors are expecting prices to hew closer to the historical norm, based on futures contracts. Gasoline futures for October delivery yesterday settled 5.5 cents a gallon below heating oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gasoline traded 2.77 cents a gallon over heating oil in the first six months of the year, compared with a discount of 37.18 cents in 2008 and 4.52 cents between 2003 and 2007. It will continue the better-than-usual performance through the end of the year, according to Cohan’s estimates.

Inventories of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, last week were the highest in 24 years, according to the Energy Department. Consumption over the past four weeks was down 12 percent from a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Barbara Powell in Dallas at Bpowell4@bloomberg.net

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