Financials:
Bonds are currently 12 higher at 116’00, the 10 Yr. Notes 6 higher at 116’07, the 5 Yr. Notes unchanged and the 2 Yr. Notes 1 higher. Dec. Eurodollars are 1 higher at 99.240. We remain short the Dec. Eurodollars. As mentioned yesterday I prefer the long side of the Bonds for short term (1-4days) below the 116’20 level. If you go long I would use a protective sell stop at 115’10. If the market trades back up through the 116’20 level, raise your stop to the 115’25 level.
Grains:
Yesterday Beans were 5-24 cents higher with new crop contracts gaining on old crop contracts. Corn was up 19 cents and Wheat up 10. Over night Nov. Beans were 2 cents lower, Corn fractionally higher and Wheat a penny higher. Yesterday the market rallied on reports that Corn acreage estimates may be overstated by 0.5-1.5 million acres for Corn. If you remain long Dec. Corn from below the 320’0 either take profits or raise your sell stop to the 324’0 level. If the market trades above 341’0 raise your stop to 329’0.
Cattle:
Yesterday Live Cattle closed steady to 57 higher depending on the contract month. We recommend remaining long either the Aug. or Oct. contract with a sell stop 175 points below your entry level.
Silver:
Sept. Silver is currently is currently 1 cent higher at 13.79. I still need to see a close above the 13.80 level to become friendly to this market (Thurs. close was 13.77 for the mini-contract, 13.786 for the full sized contract.)
S&P's:
Sept. S&P’s are currently about steady at 969.00. Yesterday we were stopped out of a recent short position when the market traded above the 962.00 level. I still remain cautiously negative to the market and will once again try the short side of the market on a rally above the 971.00 level with a protective buy stop at 982.00. Near term support is currently 946.00.
Currencies:
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 11 higher at 1.4215, the Swiss 25 higher, the Yen 24 higher at 105.39 and the Pound 93 lower at 1.6425. I continue to recommend being long out of the money put and/or put spreads in the Sept. or Dec. Yen. I also want to be a seller in the Pound above the 1.6600 level (yesterday’s high was 1.6585). The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 7 lower at 78.900.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
Alaron Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@alaron.com
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