Market analysts at odds on whether stocks are poised for a fall By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Coming off its best two-week stint in years, the U.S. stock market will start off the week ahead at its best levels this year. Whether the climb continues likely depends on earnings, economic data and Treasury auctions. "It seems entirely appropriate on the 40th anniversary of the landing on the moon that we chose to put on our space suits and go to the moon," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist, Jefferies & Co., of last week's trades. Capping a week that had the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU 9,093, +23.95, +0.26%) back above 9,000 for the first time since early January, the blue-chip index on Friday added another 23.95 points, or 0.3%, to end at 9,093.24, leaving it 4% higher on the week and at its highest settlement since Nov. 5, 2008. The S&P 500 Index (SPX 979.26, +2.97, +0.30%) rose 2.97 points, or 0.3%, to 979.26, gaining 4.1% from the week-earlier finish. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP 1,966, -7.64, -0.39%) snapped a 12-session winning streak, falling 7.64 points, or 0.4%, to 1,965.96, with the technology-laden index up 4.2% on the week. SPX 979.26, +2.97, +0.30% 1,000900800700600 FAJ Of the 500 companies on the S&P, 181 issues, or 36%, have reported quarterly results, which were off 26% from the year-ago quarter, vs. consensus estimates calling for a slide of 36%. "So far this earnings season, 71% have beat earnings estimates," commented Hogan, who contrasted the statistic to the 20-year average of 61%. "Historically we beat by an average of 2%, and so far this quarter we're beating by an average of 11%, and we're getting guidance for the first time in two quarters." Added to the bullish mix is an "important but not-talked-about fact that the commodity markets have calmed down," said Hogan, noting that the price of a barrel of oil had dived from $72 to $58 in the two weeks preceding the start of earnings. Oil prices gained 7.1% for the week, with crude closing at $68.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Read Futures Movers. The economic calendar picks up in coming days, with one market watcher, Peter Cecchini, a partner at Seven Bridges Management, pointing to Tuesday's consumer-confidence index and Wednesday's durable-goods report as especially important in what he calls "a very sentiment-driven market." "This Christmas-in-July market environment won't last forever and could evaporate as quickly as it developed when the earnings-reporting season begins to wind down," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at Davidson Companies. Three Dow components -- Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ 31.50, +0.23, +0.74%) , Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM 72.29, +0.68, +0.95%) and Walt Disney Co. (DIS 26.58, -0.22, -0.82%) -- will be among the companies reporting results for the second quarter. Off the Dow, Honeywell International Inc. (HON 33.99, -0.23, -0.67%) , Rockwell Automation (ROK 39.76, +0.61, +1.56%) and Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV 43.22, +0.61, +1.43%) are among those reporting of particular interest, according to Cecchini. Treasury sale Stock investors will likely keep close tabs as the U.S. Treasury auctions off nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars in U.S. debt. "I am not hoping the auctions go poorly, but people worry whether or not these things will be fully subscribed," said Cecchini. "We could have another constructive week," said Hogan of the coming sessions. Others were less sunny in their views. Karl Mills, president and chief investment officer for Jurika Mills & Keifer, said the market's fixation remains earnings, but he questions whether the market has gone too far, too fast, sprinting from being overly pessimistic to overly hopeful. VIX 23.09, -0.34, -1.45% 6050403020 FAJ "I really cannot tell you what is going to happen next week, but when sentiment gets this bullish, and people are very complacent -- as evidenced by the VIX (VIX 23.09, -0.34, -1.45%) [the Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index], there is bound to be a pullback, and it feels like it's going to be sooner rather than later," added Cecchini. "The stock market is starting to write checks that the economy is going to have trouble cashing," said Mills, who also indicated that while there are signs of things getting less worse and even some signs of improvement, the fiscal health of the U.S. government will eventually be a heavy weight. "Wall Street and Congress created vehicles to facilitate the barrage of consumer overconsumption, and then it spread all over the world." Referring to the massive amount of deleveraging still ahead, he commented: "Unlike Las Vegas, what happens on Wall Street doesn't stay on Wall Street."

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