By Bob Willis July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods probably fell in June for the first time in three months, reflecting auto-plant shutdowns, economists said before a report today. Bookings for goods meant to last several years dropped 0.6 percent after rising 1.8 percent in May, according to the median estimate of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Excluding transportation equipment, orders were probably unchanged after also rising the prior month. Factories at General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC were closed for at least part of the month, worsening the slump in bookings for autos and parts. Elsewhere, Caterpillar Inc. is among companies seeing steadier demand as government stimulus plans here and abroad start to kick in, indicating an economic recovery is in sight. “Orders have stabilized,” Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York. “This fits in with the bottoming in the economy. We will see a rebound in production in the second half” of 2009. The Commerce Department’s report on orders is due in Washington at 8:30 a.m. Estimates ranged from a drop of 2 percent to a 2 percent gain. General Motors didn’t exit bankruptcy until July 10 when the former General Motors Corp. sold most of its assets to the new General Motors Co. Chrysler Group was formed with the sale of a majority of its predecessor’s assets June 10 to a group led by Italy’s Fiat SpA. Auto Shutdowns Both companies shut plants during the restructuring to save cash and trim stockpiles that soared when sales plunged late last year. The inventory drawdown in manufacturing is setting the stage for future growth. Stockpiles fell at an $87 billion annual rate in the first quarter, the biggest drop on record, according to figures from Commerce. The economy will grow at an average 1.5 percent rate in the last six months of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of July. That follows a projected 1.5 percent decline in the second quarter and a 5.5 percent rate of contraction in the first three months of 2009. “The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly, and final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week. Better Earnings Caterpillar, the biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, posted second-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ highest estimate and raised its full-year forecast, saying stimulus programs are starting to support global demand. “We are seeing signs of stabilization that we hope will set the foundation for an eventual recovery,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement July 21. “Fiscal policy and monetary stimulus have been introduced around the world, and we are seeing signs, particularly in China, that they are beginning to work.” Caterpillar shares have risen 17 percent in New York trading since it posted its earnings. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 44 percent since reaching a 12-year low on March 9, on signs the economy is improving.

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