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BLBG: Crude Oil Fluctuates Amid Forecast of U.S. Stockpile Increase
 
By Mark Shenk

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude Oil fluctuated as analysts projected that the government will say U.S. inventories gained, after an industry report showed a decline.

An Energy Department report today will show that stockpiles rose 600,000 barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. The American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that supplies slipped 1.52 million barrels during the period. The institute’s release has moved in step with DOE figures 76 percent of the time in the past four years.

“Inventories will be the main focus today,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest, a Chicago-based brokerage. “The recent rally has been in large part due to signs that the economy is improving. We will peruse today’s numbers for any sign that this has led to better demand.”

Crude oil for September delivery rose 2 cents to $71.44 a barrel at 9:06 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices climbed to $71.87 and slipped to $70.85 in today’s session. Futures settled at $71.58 on Aug. 3, the highest since June 12.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its report on crude-oil and fuel stockpiles for the week ended July 31 at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Gasoline inventories probably fell 800,000 barrels last week, according to the median of 16 responses by analysts in the Bloomberg News survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1.23 million barrels during the period.

Job Losses

Companies in the U.S. cut fewer jobs in July as the worst recession since the Great Depression eased, a private report based on payroll data showed today. The estimated 371,000 drop, higher than economists forecast, followed a revised 463,000 decline in June, figures from ADP Employer Services showed today.

“The economy is only bottoming out and the recovery to pre-recession activity levels will take time,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “With more inventory builds, prices could stand to correct from recent gains.”

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose 41 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.69 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The contract has climbed 12 percent in five sessions.

The U.K.’s Financial Services Authority will hold discussions with oil traders and producers in London today on the impact of speculation in the energy market. The meeting follows a U.S. Commodity and Futures Trading Commission hearing on whether to put limits on oil trades, something the FSA doesn’t do.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

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