RTRS: METALS-Copper edges up; China policy impact reassessed
* China policy fears ease a little
* Quake off Chile coast too small, deep to impact mines
* Coming up: FOMC statement on rate policy (1815 GMT)
By Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose in
London and Shanghai on Tuesday, reversing losses in previous
sessions as fears about the impact of Chinese monetary
tightening on demand faded a little.
Worries that China's attempts to quell inflation could also
cut demand for metals, or drive commodities speculators using
cheap loans to cash in positions if interest rates rise, has
prompted liquidation in the past few days.
But analysts said although sentiment may have been shaken
by the risk of China raising interest rates, the outlook for
real demand was unchanged.
"There is a perception that the very strong rebound in
prices seen last year was driven by easy money conditions, not
only in China but globally," Barclays Capital analyst Yingxi Yu
said.
"Our economists have revised their calls for the first rise
in benchmark interest rates from the third quarter to the
second. This may have an impact on market sentiment, but I
don't think it will affect real demand conditions in China."
She added that the bank's GDP forecast for China in 2010
remained at 9.6 percent and policy would remain sufficiently
loose to accommodate annual growth rates of the order of 9 to
10 percent.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3
rose $31 to $7,341 by 0217 GMT, having slipped 2.1 percent in
the previous session and almost 5 percent in the past six
sessions.
The market shrugged off a 6.7 magnitude earthquake off the
coast of Chile as too small and too deep to threaten copper
output or infrastructure, following the huge 8.8 quake at the
end of last month that sent prices roaring almost 6 percent
higher. [ID:nN15226125]
Sentiment was underpinned by another fall in LME copper
stocks, down for the ninth day running -- their longest run of
declines since an extended period of stock draws in the second
quarter of last year.
For a graphic showing copper stocks and cancelled warrant
ratios, double-click:
here
Benchmark third-month Shanghai copper SCFc3 rose 150 yuan
to 58,530 yuan.
London copper remained at a premium to Shanghai,
effectively closing arbitrage opportunities, but it has
narrowed to 100 yuan from more than 400 on Monday and traders
said the window may reopen again.
"The arb is shut for the moment, but we think it will
reopen. There is strong demand from certain sections of the
consumer community and stocks of material held in bonded
warehouses have come down," a trader in Hong Kong said.
"Demand usually picks up in the second quarter and that
should result in higher prices in the spot market and lift
demand for imported metal."
LME zinc CMZN3 rose $8.50 to $2,288, while Shanghai metal
SZNc3 ticked up 50 yuan 18,545 yuan.
In industry news, Japan's Toho Zinc (5707.T: Quote, Profile, Research) raised its bid
for a stake in Australian-listed zinc miner CBH Resources
(CBH.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) to knock out a rival offer from Belgian metals group
Nyrstar (NYR.BR: Quote, Profile, Research), CBH said.
CBH said Toho was now offering 25 cents a share for a
maximum 49.9 percent of the company, which is set to more than
double its annual output to 59,000 tonnes of zinc metal and
30,000 tonnes of lead from its main Endeavor mine in central
Australia this year.
Base metals prices at 0217 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 YTD pct
chg
LME Cu 7341.00 31.00 +0.42 7375.00
-0.46
SHFE Cu* 58530.00 150.00 +0.26 59900.00
-2.29
LME Alum 2234.00 7.00 +0.31 2230.00
0.18
SHFE Alum* 16705.00 35.00 +0.21 17160.00
-2.65
COMEX Cu** 331.80 1.10 +0.33 332.75
-0.29
LME Zinc 2288.00 8.50 +0.37 2560.00
-10.63
SHFE Zinc 18545.00 50.00 +0.27 21195.00
-12.50
LME Nickel 21645.00 145.00 +0.67 18525.00
16.84
LME Lead 2205.00 2.00 +0.09 2432.00
-9.33
LME Tin 17650.00 240.00 +1.38 16950.00
4.13
LME/Shanghai arb^ 100
Dollar/yuan 6.8262 \ 6.8267
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
(Editing by Himani Sarkar)