RTRS: METALS-Copper dips as funds pause, demand seen rising
* Fund money takes a breather ahead of quarter end
* LME inventory drawdowns disappoint, US jobs data eyed
* COMING UP: ICSC/Goldman chain store sales at 1145 GMT
(Recasts, adds comments/details, pvs SHANGHAI)
By Michael Taylor
LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Copper eased on Tuesday,
falling back from a 19-month high hit in the previous session,
as funds stepped back ahead of the quarter-end and a slowdown in
stock drawdowns highlighted the uncertain demand outlook.
By 1006 GMT, copper for three-month delivery CMCU3 on the
London Metal Exchange traded at $7,750 a tonne from $7,770 at
the close on Monday.
With copper on course for a 15 percent rise this quarter,
analysts see prices maintaining the upward trend from April, as
new fund money returns and economic activity improves.
"Copper is down from quite a high level," said Herwig
Schmidt, head of sales at Triland Metals. "It is pausing for
breath at the moment. We've now seen five consecutive quarters
of higher prices, which will mean some new money flowing in.
Copper, which is used in power and construction, touched a
high at $7,800 a tonne on Monday, due to a weak dollar and
falling inventories. A weak U.S. currency makes metals priced in
dollars less expensive for holders of other currencies.
London copper stocks have fallen 40,175 tonnes since
mid-February when they peaked at their highest level since
October 2003. On Tuesday, they fell 625 tonnes to 514,900
tonnes.
"At these levels we feel that the near term price risk is to
the downside," investment bank Fairfax, adding "Although
steadily falling LME inventories are an encouraging sign,
implying that underlying consumption may be strong."
JOBS DATA EXPECTED
Vital for the macro outlook will be non-farm payroll jobs
data from the U.S., the world's largest economy, on Friday.
"On Good Friday, the U.S. statistical office will still
publish the job figures, and all the exchanges are closed --
thank you very much," said Triland's Schmidt. "There will be a
chaos on Tuesday, I expect quite a turbulent Easter."
Many financial markets will be closed on Friday and Monday
for holidays. [ID:nL23389078]
Aluminium CMAL3 traded at $2,287 versus $2,283. LME stocks
for the metal, used in transport and packaging, rose 30,075
tonnes to remain near all-time highs above 4.6 million tonnes.
Aluminium stocks hit a near nine-month low at 4.513 million
tonnes on March 12. A large portion of those stocks are tied up
in finance deals, to release cash for producers and to earn
banks higher returns than they would get in money markets.
[ID:nGEE5BA277]
In other metals, steel making ingredient nickel CMNI3
traded at $23,950 from $24,000 while battery material lead
CMPB3 was at $2,137.50 from $2,151.
Speculators have been active in the nickel market in recent
weeks, with latest LME data showing a dominant position
controlling between 50-80 percent of cash warrants. [LME/WC]
The discount between the cash and three-month contract
MNI0-3, at $35 a tonne, is more than half $83 on March 1.
For nickel graphs, click:
here
here
On Friday, Stratton Metals denied it was behind an
unexpected rally in the nickel price this year. [ID:nN26156363]
Stocks of nickel fell 258 tonnes to a near three month low
at 156,090 tonnes, down from record highs at 166,476 tonnes
touched on Feb. 5.
LME data also showed two positions controlled between 40-50
percent of lead cash warrants. The discount between the cash and
three-month contract MPBI0-3, was at $29.50 a tonne, compared
to $38.30 in mid-December.
Zinc CMZN3 traded at $2,318 a tonne from $2,332 and tin
CMSN3 was at $18,170 from $18,025.
Metal Prices at 1103 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 352.20 -0.60 -0.17 332.75 5.85
LME Alum 2305.00 22.00 +0.96 2230.00 3.36
LME Cu 7780.00 10.00 +0.13 7375.00 5.49
LME Lead 2149.00 -2.00 -0.09 2432.00 -11.64
LME Nickel 23950.00 -50.00 -0.21 18525.00 29.28
LME Tin 18125.00 100.00 +0.55 16950.00 6.93
LME Zinc 2342.00 10.00 +0.43 2560.00 -8.52
SHFE Alu 16660.00 35.00 +0.21 17160.00 -2.91
SHFE Cu* 61690.00 -50.00 -0.08 59900.00 2.99
SHFE Zin 18910.00 -20.00 -0.11 21195.00 -10.78
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Editing by James Jukwey)