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BLBG: Crude Oil Trades Above $82 on Economic Data, Fuel-Product Drop
 
By Ben Sharples and Christian Schmollinger

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $82 a barrel after rising on signs of increasing global economic growth and as an industry-funded report showed fuel-product supplies declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil climbed as much as 0.7 percent yesterday as the Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence in March rose more than analysts’ forecasts. Japan’s Tankan survey of business sentiment may show its fourth straight quarter of improvement tomorrow. U.S. fuel stockpiles dropped last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

“The economic situation in the U.S. and other developed countries is getting better so as long as this situation lasts the oil price could stay in the $80s,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodities fund manager with Astmax Ltd. in Tokyo. “Oil product inventories are decreasing so that’s a positive factor for the market.”

Crude oil for May delivery was at $82.38 a barrel, up 1 cent, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:55 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract settled 20 cents, or 0.2 percent, higher at $82.37.

Prices are up 3.8 percent this quarter, and 3.4 percent for the month. There will be no Nymex futures trading on April 2 because of the Good Friday holiday.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5 in March, from 46.4 in February, exceeding the median forecast of 51 by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

“In the U.S., economic indicators are pretty strong,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “The improvement in fundamentals seems to be in the fuel products, and we have seen distillates drawn-down. Crude stockpiles are a bit of a worry.”

OPEC Output

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ crude- oil production slipped from a 14-month high in March, led by an Iraqi cut, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Output fell 30,000 barrels a day, or 0.1 percent, to an average 29.205 million barrels a day, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Members with production quotas, all except Iraq, raised output by 55,000 barrels to 26.84 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008 and 1.995 million above their target.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles declined 946,000 barrels to 223.2 million, the API report showed. Supplies of distillate fuel fell 1.01 million barrels to 147.5 million. The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly inventory report today at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Crude Supplies

Gasoline inventories probably dropped 1.85 million barrels from 224.6 million the prior week, according to a survey of 16 analysts. Stockpiles of distillate fuel probably declined 1.38 million barrels from 145.7 million the prior week.

Inventories of crude oil rose 421,000 barrels last week to 351.9 million, the API said. Analysts estimate the government report will show a gain in stockpiles of 2.5 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Oil-supply totals from the API and DOE moved in the same direction 75 percent of the time in the past four years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Crude prices are also being supported by gains in processing profits for refiners as the declining fuel inventories are pushing oil product prices higher. Refiners are compelled to consume more to take advantage of the margin gains.

Refining Profit

The margin, or crack spread, for gasoline over crude oil has doubled since Feb. 16 to $12.97 a barrel today.

“Gasoline consumption will recover more as we head into the U.S. demand season and inventories may fall further so that will lead to the cracks widening,” said Astmax’s Emori.

Traders also will be looking to a report on April 2 on U.S. non-farm payrolls for further indications of economic gains.

Employers probably added jobs March for the second time in more than two years, according to 81 economists surveyed before the report. Payrolls are expected to expand by 184,000 workers, the survey said.

Brent crude oil for May settlement was at $81.22 a barrel, down 6 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:46 a.m. Singapore. The contract increased 11 cents to end the session at $81.28 yesterday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net
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