BS: Copper Falls in New York on Speculation Price Climbed Too High
By Anna Stablum
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Copper declined in New York and London, paring a fifth quarterly advance, on speculation that prices at a 19-month high had advanced too far.
Copper has climbed 5.8 percent this quarter and yesterday reached the highest level since August 2008 as house prices unexpectedly rose in the U.S., the world’s second-largest consumer. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange have fallen 7.3 percent since mid-February.
A price drop “is understandable, given the size of the moves we have seen over the past few days,” Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, said by phone. “It is not necessarily the end of the current uptrend. We are still quite positive to the second quarter and think that is going to be the strongest period for all of the base metals.”
Copper for May delivery fell as much as 4.2 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $3.5215 a pound on the Comex in New York. The contract was at $3.5495 at 8:43 a.m. local time. The most active contract reached $3.5775 yesterday, the highest compared with intraday prices since August 2008.
Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.4 percent to $7,820 a metric ton on the LME. Nickel rose to a 22-month high and tin reached the highest since September 2008.
Inventories in LME-monitored warehouses slid for a 21st day to 514,325 tons, the lowest level since Jan. 8.
“European demand has begun to pick up,” said Berry of Barclays Capital. “We are seeing draws in European warehouses, and we can probably expect that to continue. We are expecting a similar thing to happen in the U.S.”
Home Prices
Barclays Capital expects copper for immediate delivery on the LME to average $7,900 a ton in the second quarter, Berry said. That implies a 9.1 percent gain from the average price for the current quarter of about $7,238 as of yesterday.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas rose unexpectedly in January, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed yesterday. Builders use more copper products than any other industrial consumer, accounting for more than 40 percent of U.S. demand, according to the Copper Development Association.
Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut payrolls by 23,000 workers in March, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. The ADP figures were forecast to show a gain of 40,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
A weaker dollar supported prices after “the disappointing ADP data,” said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London. The Dollar Index, a gauge against six major currencies, fell as much as 0.6 percent, making dollar-priced commodities cheaper for those holding other monies.
Nickel Stockpiles
Nickel for three-month delivery on the LME rose 2 percent to $24,825 a ton after reaching $24,990, the highest intraday price since May 2008. LME-tracked stockpiles slid 3.8 percent this month, the most since July 2008, to 156,426 tons.
About 10 percent of global production has been disrupted by a strike in Canada, where Vale SA workers in Sudbury, Ontario, walked off the job in July when contract talks collapsed. Vale, the world’s second-biggest nickel producer, mines about 150,000 tons a year at Sudbury, according to Barclays Capital.
Tin advanced 0.4 percent to $18,450 a ton, after reaching $18,515, the highest since September 2008. Aluminum climbed 1.1 percent to $2,318 a ton after reaching $2,325, the highest since Jan. 19. Zinc gained 0.3 percent to $2,387 a ton, while lead rose 0.7 percent to $2,150 a ton.
--With assistance from Li Xiaowei in Shanghai, Timothy R. Homan and Courtney Schlisserman in Washington. Editors: Stuart Wallace, Dan Weeks