FX: METALS-Copper nears $8,000; eyes China yuan move, US data
LONDON, April 9 (Reuters) - Copper rose on Friday, flirting with the key $8,000 level as investors cheered U.S. economic data and bet that top consumer China may soon revalue its currency.
Aluminium hit an 18-month high, boosted by positive sentiment in metals generally, a pick up in demand for the metal and spot market tightness caused by financing deals that have tied up most of the aluminium stocks.
At 1536 GMT, copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange was traded at $7,915 a tonne from a close of $7,895 on Thursday, having earlier hit a day peak of $7,985.
The metal used in construction and power hit $8,010 a tonne earlier this week, its highest since August 2008 and around $1,000 away from an all-time high of $8,940 struck in July 2008.
"The key drivers this quarter and last, have been exogenous events, more than specific fundamentals," said Daniel Major, an analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets. "This week you had positive data ... the market is pricing in a solid demand recovery outside of China this year."
"Potential (Chinese) cuts in loan growth, infrastructure spending and rate hikes, are all likely to have an impact on the market as a whole," he added. "It is one of the key areas of potential setbacks for base metals."
The New York Times reported that China was very close to announcing a "small but immediate" revaluation of the yuan and would then let the currency fluctuate more widely.
If China raises the value of the yuan against the dollar it would make dollar-priced commodity imports less expensive for the world's biggest raw materials consumer, but it would also make Chinese exports more expensive.
MORE STRENGTH TO COME
Copper was driven by a weaker dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors, and data showing top U.S. retail chains posted a record rise in monthly same-store sales for March.
The mood remained bullish this week at the CRU/CESCO conference in Chile, where the world's top miners are confident new projects coming on stream will not create a supply glut.
"People are investing in commodities because they don't want their money in cash. As long as interest rates stay low, fresh money will continue to flow into commodities," said an LME-based trader.
Among other industrial metals, top performer nickel, a key ingredient in stainless steel, traded at $25,190 a tonne in rings from $24,720.
Underpinning nickel, LME stocks of the metal fell 540 tonnes to 155,130 tonnes, their lowest since late December and down nearly 7 percent from a record high of 166,476 tonnes in early February.
But against that, cancelled warrants, material earmarked for delivery, fell to 6,180 tonnes from 6,366 tonnes on Thursday, when warrants reached their highest level so far this year.
"There's still more strength to come this quarter but we're getting to the point where stainless production is running ahead of demand. Prices will peak this quarter and then drift a bit in the second half," said Societe Generale analyst David Wilson.
Aluminium, used in transport and packaging, traded at $2,405 a tonne from $2,359, having earlier hit $2,413, its highest since early October 2008.
LME stocks of the metal fell 5,125 tonnes on a daily basis. They remained near record highs at around 4.58 million tonnes in total, but analysts said not much of this material was readily available to the market.
Zinc was traded at $2,394.25 a tonne from $2,380, battery material lead traded at $2,320 from $2,290, having earlier hit its highest since early March at $2,330, while tin traded at $18,725 from $18,600.
Metal Prices at 1538 GMT Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2009 Ytd Percent
move COMEX Cu 358.50 0.40 +0.11 332.75 7.74 LME Alum 2400.00 41.00 +1.74 2230.00 7.62 LME Cu 7913.00 18.00 +0.23 7375.00 7.29 LME Lead 2315.00 25.00 +1.09 2432.00 -4.81 LME Nickel 25140.00 420.00 +1.70 18525.00 35.71 LME Tin 18600.00 0.00 +0.00 16950.00 9.73 LME Zinc 2391.00 11.00 +0.46 2560.00 -6.60 SHFE Alu 16690.00 60.00 +0.36 17160.00 -2.74 SHFE Cu* 62570.00 770.00 +1.25 59900.00 4.46 SHFE Zin 19210.00 185.00 +0.97 21195.00 -9.37 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Editing by Sue Thomas)