While the Euro remains moderately above the levels seen at the end of last week, the currency is showing enough weakness this morning to give off the impression of a negative currency market influence. Indian gold prices were also a touch weaker, with the Asian gold trade also lower and that seems to have given the bear camp an initial edge in the early Tuesday US action. With US equity prices also showing moderate early weakness this morning and the overall macro economic outlook seemingly weakened in the wake of a thin US report schedule early this week, it is not surprising to see gold, silver and other physical commodities showing weakness in the early Tuesday trade. The trade will see a US Trade Deficit reading this morning but that reading doesn't look to offer up much in the way of direction for the US economy and therefore that report isn't expected to drive gold or silver prices sharply. The metals trade will see an increasing amount of corporate earnings reports today and later this week and those reports might be a source of fresh direction on the economy. With the first important economic readings of this week coming in the form of US retail sales and CPI on Wednesday morning, the markets might have to look to corporate earnings for their economic guidance today. GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: At least in the early action today, June Gold did see a temporary slide below the even number $1,150 level on the charts and the market has spent a lot of time this morning below the prior session's lows. Apparently the gold market is being partially undermined this morning because of a higher than expected Greek T-Bill auction result overnight, as that in turn has sparked concerns for the ultimate borrowing costs that Greece will face in their longer term borrowing efforts. With US Treasuries yesterday supposedly catching a bid off concerns that US corporate earnings this week will be soft, it is also possible that gold and other physical commodity markets are fretting over the prospect of a slow paced US recovery. Other traders are suggesting that weakness in the Euro is prompting the weakness in gold and with the Euro trading back into the gap area created by its sharp Monday morning rally, it would seem like currency traders have come into the action today, bearish toward the Euro. US Gold Stocks for April 9th were 10.074 million ounces up 17,443 ounces. Gold Stocks have once again reached a new record high level. We have to give the bear camp the edge in the gold market today. However, the ability to reject a probe below the $1,150 level in June gold this morning would seem to provide the bull camp with some hope. We continue to think that gold is a physical commodity market in need of definitive evidence of an ongoing recovery in the global economy and that type of news might not be forth coming this morning. Therefore a bit of lower chop might be possible today, but we suspect that a series of favorable corporate earnings reports and a positive US retail sales reading on Wednesday morning might end the corrective tilt in gold. Therefore our pick for a near term low in the June gold contract is seen at $1,146.60 this morning, with support moving up above $1,150 in the close today. SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The May silver contract in the early Tuesday trade spent a lot of time trading below the prior session's lows. In fact, May silver also fell down to last Friday's low before the trade found some buying interest. Like gold, the silver market is partially undermined this morning by a higher Dollar, sagging equity prices and renewed Greek debt concerns. Apparently seeing the Greeks pay up for short term debt has fostered concerns that the overall cost of their bailout might be higher than their government can stand and that has served to pressure a host of physical commodity prices this morning. However, the silver market is also seeing a slightly positive copper trade early today and that might be lending some support to silver prices in the early action today. Silver exchange stocks for April 9th were 115.066 million ounces down 325,982 ounces. Silve rstocks have declined in 11 of the last 20 days. A minor corrective tilt is in place today, as many markets are questioning the pace of the US recovery, while others are simply concerned that the EU debt issue is whipping up global macro economic fears again. Therefore, a bit of a corrective setback would seem to be in motion today but we don't expect silver to fall sharply. Close-in up trend channel support in May silver is seen at $17.99, with more significant consolidation support in May silver seen down at the $17.92 level. Hopefully the corrective action will run its course later today and the US retail sales readings on Wednesday morning will restart the up trend pattern that was in place for most of the February through early April time frame. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear elsewhere in this report. COMEX GOLD (JUN) 04/13/2010: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 1175.2. The next area of resistance is around 1163.9 and 1175.2, while 1st support hits today at 1148.1 and below there at 1143.5. COMEX SILVER (MAY) 04/13/2010: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside objective is 1874.0. The next area of resistance is around 1842.5 and 1874.0, while 1st support hits today at 1797.5 and below there at 1784.0.

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