BLBG: Oil Rises Above $74 on Bets Demand Will Gain on U.S. Economy
By Yee Kai Pin
June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced in New York, extending gains made last week, on speculation sustained growth in the U.S. economy will boost fuel demand from the world’s biggest energy consumer.
Oil climbed for the fourth time in five days before reports this week that may show U.S. factories churned out more goods last month and the cost of living declined. These could point to a manufacturing-led recovery that isn’t generating inflation, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The dollar dropped to its lowest level in a week against the euro, bolstering the investment appeal of commodities.
“Fundamentals are getting better and the euro is also driving the crude market,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivative sales manager at Newedge in Tokyo. “On the downside, the market is well supported above $73 at the moment.”
Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as $1.01, or 1.4 percent, to $74.79 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $74.72 at 1:12 p.m. Singapore time. Futures increased 3.2 percent last week and are up 5.8 percent from a year ago.
Production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities increased in May for the 10th time in 11 months, according to the median estimate from 63 economists polled by Bloomberg News before Federal Reserve figures due June 16. Consumer prices probably declined 0.2 percent in May, after slipping 0.1 percent the previous month, the survey showed.
Oil fell June 11 after the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales decreased 1.2 percent in May, the biggest drop since September.
Dollar Falls
The dollar declined against the euro for the fourth time in five days. The common currency gained as much as 0.8 percent to $1.2208, the highest since June 4.
A European Union report today may show industrial output in the 16-nation region expanded 0.5 percent in April from March, when it increased a revised 1.6 percent, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
On June 11, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index for the U.S. rose to 75.5 for June from 73.6 last month. That’s the highest since January 2008, beating a median 74.5 estimate from economists polled by Bloomberg News.
U.S. gasoline inventories dropped to the lowest level this year at the start of the summer peak demand season, an Energy Department report showed June 9. Stockpiles fell to 219 million barrels in the week ended June 4, 5.3 percent above the five- year average.
“There’s no shortage,” said Hasegawa at Newedge. “The situation is much better than before, although I still cannot say it’s very strong at the moment.”
Futures Bets
Brent crude oil for July delivery rose as much as 77 cents, or 1 percent, to $75.12 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 1 p.m. Singapore time. The contract increased 3.1 percent last week.
Concerns about the viability of the U.S. economic rebound have led hedge funds to cut their bets on higher oil-futures prices to a 10-month low.
Speculative net-long positions, or wagers that prices will increase, in crude futures declined 30 percent to 17,457 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week ended June 8, the lowest level since July, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders Report released on June 11. Bets on gains have dropped 87 percent since reaching a record 135,669 in January.
To contact the reporter on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net