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BS: Oil Fluctuates as U.S. Home Sales Drop, Credit Access Improves
 
By Margot Habiby
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fluctuated as sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in May, signaling the economy is struggling to recover, and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said credit availability is improving.
Oil was steady after purchases of existing houses decreased 2.2 percent, missing expectations that they would gain. Geithner indicated that the U.S. economy may be poised for increased growth as companies are building up unprecedented cash reserves. Equities and the dollar were also little changed.
“The worry for the crude market ultimately is that we could have a double-dip recession,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, said in an interview. “There’s nothing in the economic reports to show that this is anything but a slowdown.”
Crude oil for July delivery gained 16 cents to $77.98 a barrel at 11:30 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has risen 17 percent in the past year. The July contract expires at the close of floor trading today. The more-actively traded August contract gained 12 cents to $78.73 a barrel.
Brent crude for August rose 11 cents to $78.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
Demand was probably concentrated in prior months before a June tax-credit deadline. To receive a government incentive worth as much as $8,000, buyers must have signed contracts by the end of April and need to complete deals by the end of this month.
Credit Access
“Credit conditions overall, which dragged our economy into a deep recession in 2007, no longer pose an obstacle to growth,” Geithner said today in testimony to the Congressional Oversight Panel.
Leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized nations are scheduled to meet June 26 to consider ways to reduce deficits and tackle government debt without harming the global economic recovery.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped to 1,112.89 from 1,113.20 yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 8.69 points to 10,451.10.
The euro dropped to $1.2299 from $1.2312 yesterday in New York. Earlier, it fell as much as 0.5 percent. A weaker euro against the dollar curbs the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Goldman Forecast
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its price forecasts for crude oil because commodity markets are “fragile” on concern that growth in Europe and China will slow, according to a report today by analysts led by Allison Nathan in New York. The bank cut its forecast for New York-traded oil by 9.1 percent for 2011 to $100 a barrel.
“Commodity markets are generally rebounding strongly off their lows but sentiment remains fragile on European and Chinese concerns,” the analysts said in the report.
Stockpiles fell 900,000 barrels in the seven days ended June 18 from 363.1 million the week before, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Ten of the respondents forecast a decrease and four estimated a gain.
Supplies of crude oil climbed 1.69 million barrels in the week ended June 11, last week’s report showed. Imports increased 1.7 percent to 9.7 million barrels a day.
“Given the way things are playing out fundamentally, things should probably trade back down toward the mid-$70s,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
--With assistance from Mark Shenk in New York and Shobhana Chandra and Ian Katz in Washington. Editors: Joe Link, Richard Stubbe
To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net.
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