SF: Euro Falls From Six-Week High Versus Dollar on Outlook for ECB
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- The euro declined from near its strongest level in six weeks against the dollar on speculation the region's central bank will keep interest rates at a record low as efforts to trim national budget deficits damp growth.
The euro weakened against 14 of its 16 most actively traded peers. The European Central Bank will leave rates unchanged at 1 percent when policy makers meet on July 8, according to all 55 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The yen traded near a seven- month high against the dollar before reports today and tomorrow that economists said will show European investor confidence weakened and U.S. service industries expanded at a slower pace.
"The euro-zone economy isn't strong enough to warrant an interest-rate hike," said Lutz Karpowitz, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. "Near-term gains for the euro against the dollar are unlikely."
The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2551 as of 8:20 a.m. in London from $1.2566 on July 2, when it reached $1.2612, the most since May 21. The yen traded at 87.90 per dollar from 87.75 last week in New York, after climbing to 86.97 on July 1, the strongest since Dec. 2. The Japanese currency traded little changed at 110.31 per euro.
Austerity Measures
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed governments to trim their budget deficits this month, saying such action would improve the confidence of consumers and investors.
"We are in a period where we have to manage budgets very tightly," Trichet told journalists yesterday.
An index measuring sentiment in the 16-nation region declined to minus 5 in July from minus 4.1 in June, Limburg, Germany-based Sentix is forecast to say today, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
"There are lingering worries that austerity measures will harm European growth," said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. "We're still looking to sell the euro on rallies."
Losses in the yen were tempered as futures traders increased bets for a second week that Japan's currency will gain, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Net Longs
The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the yen compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 27,427 on June 29, compared with net longs of 3,630 a week earlier.
"The decline in risk appetite over recent weeks is showing little sign of abating," said Gareth Berry, currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG. "The yen will likely continue to benefit as a safe-haven destination."
The dollar fell to its weakest level in seven months against the yen on July 1 as traders added to bets the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark rate near zero on signs the economy is slowing.
The Institute for Supply Management's index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up about 90 percent of the economy, fell to 55 in June from 55.4 the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion. The report is due tomorrow.
Fed Rate Bets
Futures on the CME Group Inc. exchange show a 34 percent chance the Fed will hold its benchmark rate between zero and 0.25 percent through its April 2011 meeting, up from 12 percent odds a month earlier.
U.S. markets are shut today for the Independence Day holiday. Trading may be "relatively quiet" due to lower liquidity, Khoon Goh, a senior markets economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd., wrote in a note to clients.
South Korea's won led gains among regional currencies before a central bank meeting.
The Bank of Korea will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 2 percent at a review on July 9, according to seven of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Three predicted a quarter of a percentage point increase.
"Offshore players are selling dollars more than expected," said Ha Jun Woo, a currency trader for Daegu Bank Ltd. in Seoul. "We're also seeing preemptive bets ahead of the central bank's monetary policy meeting. If interest rates rise, that will push investors to sell dollars and buy the won."
The won strengthened 0.5 percent to 1,223.03 per dollar, after sliding 1.1 percent last week. The currency will trade between 1,220 and 1,238 per dollar today, Ha forecast.
--With assistance from Frances Yoon in Seoul. Editors: David Clarke, Keith Campbell.