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FX: Dollar Index Outlook Ahead Of Two Rate Decisions
 
Wednesday trade has seen Asian risk markets drop lower with equity traders giving back the gains on the week on the Japanese Nikkei, and gold bullion prices moving down to test 1190 an ounce. S/P futures prices have flat-lined at 1020, along with West Texas Intermediate oil trade that is holding 71.50 support.
The forex reaction has been for the major currencies to hold the dollar index around 84.50, which on the daily chart is a main price action point of note, and one that global markets will look too for confirmation of which direction will be tested next. Having absorbed half-tear end and the infamous Non-farm Payroll numbers, as well as macro-economic reads that neither confirm nor deny global growth potential, the markets are weighing fair value on the dollar right now.
Eur/Usd looks to be setting up a buy-support play at 1.2550, while Gbp/Usd has found buyers at 1.5120 ahead of the two interest rate decisions on Thursday.
Both Aud/Usd and Cad/Usd have consolidated recent moves against the Usd but will need global commodity trade to move higher if the moves are to turn into substantial gains and reverse benign trend reads.
The two interest rate pairs are still showing overall Usd weakness, and both Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf will require a huge reversal in 10 year Treasury note valuations to get the Usd on a strong footing on these two pairs, both of which are weighing heavily on the dollar index valuations.
Forex Momentum Times
8pm, 2-3am, 6-7am ET. Outside of these, look for near-term Swing Point trades. The intra-day 25 pip plays are housed in the Trade Plan and Trade Analysis areas.
As from Jun 01 10 the signals posted to clients each day will be inclusive of any Trade Plan that the trade team sees as having the potential to move.
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