PARIS — The global oil market could be a guiding hand of stability amid uncertain recovery from the economic crisis next year, the International Energy Agency said in a rare report of confidence on Tuesday. "Markets in 2011 may prove 'not too hot, not too cold'," the IEA said. "Whisper it quietly, but we might, just might, be in for some market stability for a while longer." The IEA said it was assuming that the oil price next year would average 79.40 dollars per barrel, and that a measure of the global dependency of economies on oil as an energy source would decline by 2.6 percent. In London, the benchmark price of oil eased slightly on Tuesday to 74.65 dollars a barrel. The IEA said that "despite economic recovery" the growth of demand for oil would slow next year in the OECD area of 31 advanced economies. Economic recovery in Europe might be threatened by austerity drives in Germany, France and Britain. But even if a setback or a "double-dip" recession were averted, and expected "relative strong" growth of 1.9 percent materialised, European "oil demand will continue to decline in 2011." The agency, the energy strategy arm of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, held its forecasts for growth of global oil demand this year largely unchanged at 86.5 million barrels per day, showing an increase of 1.8 mbd or 2.1 percent from 2009. The rate of growth in demand would then slow down in 2011 to 1.3 mbd or 1.6 percent to a total of 87.8 mbd. Next year, "growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries," it said, to the extent of 1.6 mbd or 3.8 percent. By contrast "the OECD (area) sees resumed decline" of 0.2 mbd or 0.5 percent. New demand is coming mainly from Asia and other emerging economies. Big industrialised users, notably in Europe, are becoming relatively less dependent on oil through efficiency and switching sources. A telling example is a rapid switch in Germany, the biggest European user of heating fuel, to home boilers which use low-sulphur fuel and raised efficiency by 15-20 percent. Oil demand in the United States was set to fall by 0.5 percent to 18.9 mbd in 2011, after growth of 1.0 percent in 2010. Growth of demand by China remained a key factor, and appeared to have risen by 9.5 percent in May on a 12-month comparison, but this was sharply lower than recent growth of 17.4 percent and pointed towards a "gentle slowdown" in the second half of this year as the government attempts to cool down the economy." The IEA repeated unease about the quality of statistics from China, saying that if the oil figures were correct "this could suggest that GDP (growth) readings may be inflated, as repeatedly argued by numerous observers." And new supply is coming increasingly from outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries which, for nearly 40 years, has been by far the dominant influence on the supply side. Expansion of OPEC's oil capacity was expected to falter up to the end of next year. The agency said that its "relatively relaxed" view of market fundamentals at least until the middle of next year hinged on continuing, if slower, growth of non-OPEC supply. Relatively high and stable prices for oil, and a lull in upstream cost inflation had boosted supply activity. "Brazil, Colombia and Canada give an Americas-oriented slant to 2011 non-OPEC growth, as do rising biofuels supplies," it said. The report forecast a fall in production of 30,000 barrels per day from the Gulf of Mexico in 2010-2011 owing to the effects of the BP oil spill disaster, but also said this would be more than offset by an increase in output in 2011 of 55,000 barrels per day. The agency warned that if projects were delayed for long by uncertainty over new operating rules, expected output in the region in 2015 might fall by 100,000-300,000 barrels per day. It estimated roughly that the total of oil spewed into the sea so far as a result of the Deepwater Horizon well disaster was 2.3-4.5 million barrels. The report said that "midstream bottlenecks look unlikely between now and end-2011." New refining capacity was being added fast, much of it in China, the Asia Pacific and the Middle East, and shipyards would deliver 70 million deadweight tonnes of tankers this year and next. Regarding sanctions against Iran for its nuclear programme, the IEA said they were already driving up fuel prices and were "casting doubt on the republic's ability to source the full volumes required." It said that tougher US sanctions have deepened Iran's international isolation and significantly reduced its sources of fuel." The sanctions were "expected to have a material impact on the country's energy industry." it said. "Longer term, the new sanctions could severely limit the potential of the country's gas development plans."

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