RTRS: METALS-Copper probes upside, falling inventories support
MARKETS-METALS (UPDATE 4)
* Market shrugs off Japanese GDP growth
* LME copper stocks down 25 percent since mid-Feb
(Adds official prices)
By Pratima Desai
LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose on Monday as the market focused on falling inventories, supply constraints and strong economic growth in China, the world's largest consumer of industrial metals.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was untraded in official rings, but bid at $7,215 a tonne from $7,156 a tonne at Friday's close.
The metal used in power and construction traded between $7,178 to $7,250.50 a tonne on Monday.
The low was in early Europe time as the market digested news of weak gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Japan, one of the world's largest economies. But analysts said Japan was not a major driver of industrial metal prices.
"Overall the environment for base is positive. You have falling inventories still for many metals and continued economic expansion in key countries like China, albeit at a slow pace," said Michael Widmer, analyst at Bank of America.
Also helping copper prices were supply constraints -- one reason why analysts expected the copper market to be balanced or see a small deficit this year.
"Unless we get a double-dip, I don't see these supports subsiding," Widmer said.
China was estimated to account for more than 30 percent of copper demand forecast at about 19 million tonnes this year.
A Chinese government think tank said last week that its economy will cool further this quarter as fiscal pump-priming starts to fade and the restocking cycle draws to a close.
But it said annual growth will slow to 9.2 percent from 10.3 percent in the second quarter and 11.9 percent in the first.
RAINS HAMPER
Stocks of copper in LME warehouses at 406,700 are down about 25 percent since the middle of February when the number touched 555,075 tonnes, the highest since October 2003.
Tin stocks in LME warehouses have more than halved to 13,940 tonnes since late January and nickel inventories were down nearly 30 percent to 117,012 tonnes.
Tin traded at $20,745 a tonne in official rings from $20,750 at the close on Friday and stainless steel ingredient nickel was bid at $21,475 from $21,275.
"News that Glencore had tried to buy all nickel output from Norilsk may encourage the market," investment bank Fairfax said in a note. "If Glencore gains control of a significant nickel supply source then prices could rise further."
Bolstering tin prices was news that refined tin output from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter, may fall by 20 percent from a government target of 105,000 tonnes as unseasonally long rains hamper mining.
Worries about near-term supplies have pushed the market into backwardation -- a premium for cash material over the three-month contract of $200 a tonne. That compared with a small discount or contango last week.
The spotlight in the aluminium market was also on spreads between different contracts. Supply concerns have seen the contango between the cash and three-month contract narrow to around $8 a tonne from $26 in late June.
The premium for material to be delivered in August against that for September was around $10 a tonne on Friday. In late July that number was nearly zero.
The three-month aluminium contract traded at $2,119 a tonne from $2,110 on Friday. Earlier it touched $2,105 a tonne, its lowest since July 30.
However, the metal used in transport and packaging has been boosted by financing deals, which have tied up about 70 percent of LME stocks -- at around 4.37 million tonnes.
Also a plus are plans to launch physically backed aluminium exchange traded products.
Battery material lead traded at $2,068 a tonne from $2,057 on Friday and zinc at $2,080 from $2,047.