WSJ: OIL FUTURES: Crude Futures Hover Around Settlement Prices
By Paddy Gourlay
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crude futures are little changed Friday morning, although prices have climbed from intraday lows after the euro ticked higher against the dollar following a surprise jump in German business confidence.
Munich-based research institute Ifo said its business sentiment index for Europe's largest economy rose to 106.8 in September from 106.7 in August.
But crude futures are generally lacking direction amid a mix of bullish and bearish news this week, and trading close to their settlement prices of the last three days.
The softening dollar Friday, which makes it cheaper to buy crude futures, is tempered by weaker European equities following Thursday's downbeat eurozone purchasing managers' indexes and the drop in Irish second-quarter gross domestic product.
A tropical storm, Matthew, has formed off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, which could prove bullish for crude if it veers into the oil-producing region of the Gulf of Mexico, although direction is still unclear.
"[Matthew] could still either re-emerge over the Bay of Campeche or rebound to the North but there is no agreement between the models as it is difficult to predict the behavior of the storm once it interacts with land," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix.
At 1028 GMT, the front-month November Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange is 11 cents higher at $78.22 a barrel. Trade is average, with 29,000 lots changing hands so far.
The front-month November light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, called West Texas Intermediate, is trading 22 cents higher at $75.40 a barrel. A lowly 14,500 lots have traded so far.
Futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street, which may lift prices later, analysts said. Both Brent and WTI reversed earlier losses in afternoon trading Thursday after a rebound in U.S. equity markets.
"As ever, crude's correlation to the equity market remains strong with Brent's rolling monthly correlation sitting just below 90% for the best part of the past week," pointed out Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital.
The ICE's gasoil contract for October delivery is 75 cents higher at $678 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for October delivery is 0.20 cents up at 191.94 cents a gallon.
-By Paddy Gourlay, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20-7842-9364; patrick.gourlay@dowjones.com