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RTRS: METALS-Copper, aluminium rally on demand prospects, dollar
 
* Copper, aluminium, zinc, lead around 5-mth highs
* Traders pricing in future supply crunch for copper
* Coming Up: U.S. August durable goods orders at 1230 GMT

(Updates prices, adds comment/detail, pvs SINGAPORE)
By Melanie Burton
LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Copper and aluminium swung to
new five-month highs on Friday, with prospects of seasonally
strong fourth-quarter demand and a downward dollar trend paving
the way for further gains.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was $7,932 at
0936 GMT, up from a close of $7,885 per tonne on Thursday. It
earlier hit a new five-month peak of $7,935 per tonne and is on
track to take out the $8,000 mark.
A break above $8,043.75 would open the way to prices last
seen in August 2008.
Aluminium, CMAL3, zinc CMZN3 and lead CMPB3 all
climbed to new highs in around five months, while tin matched
last week's two-year top at $12,800 per tonne.
But volumes were slender, with the world's top metals
consumer China still on holiday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. It
will only reopen on Monday and national holidays resume on Oct.
1-7.
"The rally is obviously the weakness of the dollar, and the
prospect of quantitative easing and the flood of money looking
for a home," said analyst Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas.
"It's [also] to do with sentiment....This is all about the
perception that the market will become tight in the future."
A weaker dollar makes commodities cheaper for holders of
other currencies.
The dollar which has hovered around six-month lows against a
basket of currencies this month was slightly firmer on Friday,
after talk that Japan's central bank intervened in its currency
markets. [ID:nLDE68N09K] [.DXY]
Later this session, the industrial metals could yet be
swayed by forex market machinations, with a stream of U.S.
figures due. These include August durable goods orders at 1230
GMT and new home sales for August at 1400 GMT.

COPPER FORWARD MARKET TIGHTENS
Traders said that futures contracts for copper near term
were attracting a premium over those further forward, but that
even the cost for those contracts was rising, as traders priced
in a supply crunch to come.
"The market is pricing in quite a protracted period of
shortness. There is an expectation of running into a period of
shortage," a metals trader said.
Three-month copper was trading at a $1.50 premium versus the
March 2011 contract on the LME rising to $70.50 against
December. [0#MCU:]
Copper stocks in LME warehouses rose by a scant 100 tonnes,
to 380,225 tonnes, the latest LME data showed, but as a general
trend have been in decline, falling counter cycle over summer.
They have dropped by around one third since February, when
stocks stood at 555,075 tonnes, the highest level since October
2003. [0#LME-STOCKS]
The market is also already seeing pressure this year, with
global demand outpacing supply. The International Copper Study
Group said this week that the global market for refined copper
was in a 281,000 tonne deficit in the first half.
[ID:nLDE68K12C]
Aluminium CMAL3 was at $2,303.75 a tonne from $2,292,
having reached $2,311.75, a new five-month peak, earlier.
Lead CMPB3 at $2,302 was up against the $2,275 close. It
touched $2,309 earlier its highest since late April.
Zinc CMZN3 changed hands at $2,280 against $2,250, having
hit its most expensive since early May at $2,280. Laggard nickel
climbed to $22,844 from $22,700, but remained below recent
multi-month highs above $23,570.
Tin at $23,740 was up from $23,600, having matched two-year
highs at $23,800 earlier on the back of ongoing supply
constraints from Indonesia. [ID:nJAK60863].
Barclays expects mining supply constraints to push tin and
copper to new annual average peaks next year. [ID:LDE68M1TG]

Metal Prices at 0950 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 360.70 2.20 +0.61 334.65 7.78
LME Alum 2300.00 8.00 +0.35 2230.00 3.14
LME Cu 7920.00 35.00 +0.44 7375.00 7.39
LME Lead 2298.00 23.00 +1.01 2432.00 -5.51
LME Nickel 22775.00 215.00 +0.95 18525.00 22.94
LME Tin 23575.00 -25.00 -0.11 16950.00 39.09
LME Zinc 2275.00 83.00 +3.79 2560.00 -11.13
SHFE Alu 15725.00 -35.00 -0.22 17160.00 -8.36
SHFE Cu* 59830.00 -420.00 -0.70 59900.00 -0.12
SHFE Zin 17805.00 -300.00 -1.66 21195.00 -15.99
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Reporting by Melanie Burton; editing by Sue Thomas)








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