Natural gas futures fell for the first time in five days before a government report today that may show that U.S. supplies rose to a record last week. The Energy Department may say gas stockpiles increased by 23 billion cubic feet to 3.844 trillion cubic feet, surpassing the record of 3.837 trillion set in November 2009, according to the median of 19 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Temperatures will be below average next week across much of the U.S., according to the National Weather Service. “Gas has been getting a boost from colder weather, but we still have too much gas in storage and the fundamentals are weak,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFG Best in Chicago. Natural gas for December delivery fell 2.1 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $4.189 per million Btu at 10:06 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have declined 25 percent this year. The department is scheduled to release the weekly supply report at noon in Washington, one day earlier than usual because of the Veterans Day holiday tomorrow. Gas supplies gained 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 29 to 3.821 trillion, the department said last week. A surplus to the five-year average rose to 10.2 percent from 9.1 percent the previous week. Marketed gas production will average 61.49 billion cubic feet a day this year, up from 61.29 billion estimated in October, the Energy Department said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday. Consumption will average 65 billion cubic feet a day, down from 65.16 billion estimated in October. Hub Gas Benchmark gas at the Henry Hub in Louisiana will average $4.35 per million British thermal units, down from October’s estimate of $4.47, according to the department. Forecast models indicate that North America will be colder than normal in the next two weeks, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Chicago will have a low of 19 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 7 Celsius) on Nov. 20, 13 degrees below normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. New York will have a low of 31 degrees, 9 degrees below normal. About 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. To contact the reporters on this story: Moming Zhou in New York at Mzhou29@bloomberg.net; To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net

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