At The FRED Report (www.theFREDreport.com), we have been looking for a U.S. dollar rally that may in fact be starting. What interests us about this rally is that it is occurring when commodities are overbought and could suffer a sharp decline. Should the dollar rally and commodities decline, it would tend to reinforce the idea that the dollar and commodities are inversely correlated, and this is not always true. We show monthly charts of the Gold Futures and the dollar below. As you can see, there are times when they move together and times when they do not.

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