White sugar fell for a fourth day in London on signals that India, the world’s second-biggest producer, this year may have a surplus to export after it was the largest buyer last year as adverse weather damaged crops. India’s government will decide on ending curbs on exports completely after Nov. 21, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said last week. The country may have a surplus of 3.5 million metric tons in the year than began Oct. 1 after keeping aside 4 million tons for the next season, he said. Its reserves are at about 4 million tons, less than the nation’s preferred level of 10 million, according to Rabobank International. “The most important thing for the market is what India’s going to do, what is their definitive policy statement on exports,” said James Kirkup, head of sugar broking at ABN Amro Markets (U.K.) Ltd. in London. “India is the swing factor in statistics, determining whether the market is in deficit or surplus. If they decide to not license any exports the market will go through the roof.” Brazil is the largest producer. White, or refined, sugar for March delivery fell $13.10, or 1.9 percent, to $664 a ton on NYSE Liffe at 12:22 p.m. in London. Last week the price fell 13 percent, the largest weekly decline since the five days ended Nov. 17, 2006. Raw sugar for March delivery was unchanged at 26.21 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Raw-sugar prices had climbed 23 percent this year before the three-day rout that saw futures plunge 12 percent to 26.21 cents on Nov. 12. The global raw-sugar surplus may be 2 million tons in 2010-2011, down from 3.22 million forecast two months earlier, Sergey Gudoshnikov, economist at the London-based International Sugar Organization, said in an interview Oct. 26. ‘Snowballed’ Investors selling speculative long positions in the sweetener, or bets prices will rise, “snowballed” last week, Kirkup said, after futures plunged 14 percent in London and 20 percent in New York on Nov. 11 and 12. “The market hasn’t purged itself of all the speculative longs in two days, so there are people out there who will sell on further weakness,” said Kirkup. “They’re hoping that the market goes back up to get themselves out of jail, but if it doesn’t they will start getting twitchy and start liquidating. So unless the market goes up again, we could move lower still.” The European Union will allow an extra 350,000 tons of sugar exports in the 12 months ending in September, raising the limit for out-of-quota shipments to 1 million tons, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said last week. Coffee Rises India was the largest importer of the sweetener last year, buying 4.1 million tons in the marketing year that ended on Sept. 30, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Arabica coffee for March delivery gained 1.7 percent to $2.0680 a pound on ICE. Robusta coffee for January delivery rose in London to snap three days of losses, climbing $17, or 0.9 percent, to $1,892 a ton on NYSE Liffe. Cocoa for March delivery declined $2, or 0.1 percent, to $2,777 a ton in New York. Cocoa for March delivery fell 0.1 percent to 1,826 pounds ($2,934) a ton in London. To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Morris in London at smorris39@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.

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