The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in February, the eighth consecutive gain and a sign supporting the Federal Reserve’s statement that the recovery has gained traction. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.8 percent after rising 0.1 percent in January, the New York-based group said today. Economists forecast a 0.9 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Better employment prospects have increased consumer confidence alongside strengthening business investment and exports, indicating the economy will continue to grow even as housing remains depressed. U.S. central bank policy makers said this week the recovery is on a “firmer footing” while the labor market is improving ‘gradually.” “Whether it’s jobs, income, spending, just about everything in the economy in February looked pretty decent with the exception of the plunge in housing activity,” Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh, said before the report. Estimates of 54 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from an increase of 0.1 percent to 1.2 percent. Eight of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the gain, led by a widening interest-rate spread. The spread, or difference between the overnight federal funds rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, boosted the index by 0.36 point. Jobless Claims A fall in the average weekly initial jobless claims and an increase in stock prices also contributed positively to the index. Two of the index components were negative. A drop in authorized plans for new construction subtracted 0.22 point from the measure. Permits, a proxy for future construction, fell 8.2 percent to an all-time low 517,000 annual pace in February, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday. New orders for non-defense capital goods also took away from the index. Manufacturing has led the U.S. economic expansion, boosting employment, as new orders picked up from U.S. companies and firms abroad. Factories created 33,000 jobs in February after a 53,000 increase in January, and Federal Reserve reports this week showed manufacturing continued to accelerate in the New York and Philadelphia regions. “From the industrial market, we’re seeing good, solid demand holding at about the same level as we saw in the fourth quarter,” Ron Slaymaker, vice president of investor relations at Texas Instruments Inc., said on a conference call with analysts March 8. “I think demand from automotive we certainly would characterize as strong.” Coincident Indicators The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 percent after a revised 0.3 percent gain in January. The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production -- the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions. The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.2 percent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit. Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and the money supply adjusted for inflation. To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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