BLBG: Copper Declines on Concern About the Strength of Global Economic Expansion
Copper fell in London, heading for the first quarterly drop in three quarters, as lessened optimism for Europe’s economic prospects fanned concern about the strength of global growth.
European confidence in the economic outlook worsened as surging energy costs and Japan’s earthquake clouded world growth prospects, the European Commission said today. U.S. consumer confidence slid to a three-month low, figures showed yesterday. A report due tomorrow may show lower growth in factory orders in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest copper consumer.
“There are a number of things that could provide some pressure,” said Daniel Brebner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in London. He pointed to the U.S. confidence figures, elevated oil prices and concern about a nuclear power plant in Japan that’s leaking radiation.
Copper for three-month delivery fell $50, or 0.5 percent, to $9,535 a metric ton at 12:06 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices are down 0.7 percent this quarter. Copper for May delivery slipped 0.1 percent to $4.342 a pound on the Comex in New York.
Deutsche Bank cut its second-quarter estimate for copper prices by 5 percent to $9,500 a ton and lowered the full-year projection by 1 percent to $10,160.
“Ultimately, though, there is an underpin to growth, and that is a monetary accommodation which should remain in place,” Brebner said. The Federal Reserve this month kept the target for its benchmark interest rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008.
Oil Prices
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro region slipped to 107.3 this month from a revised 107.9 in February, the commission said. The Conference Board’s U.S. confidence index fell to 63.4 from a revised 72 reading in February, figures showed yesterday. Oil rose as high as $104.78 a barrel in New York today, the 10th day in a row that prices have exceeded $100.
Still, industrial metals will likely rise in 2011’s second half on “resilient” global growth, Deutsche Bank said today.
Copper inventories tracked by the LME gained 225 tons to 439,725 tons, daily exchange figures showed. A single party held 40 percent to 49 percent of LME stocks as of March 28, down from 50 percent to 79 percent on March 25, exchange figures showed.
Canceled warrants, or orders to draw copper from LME warehouses, fell 575 tons to 14,800 tons
Lead for three-month delivery on the LME dropped 0.3 percent to $2,679 a ton. Cash metal closed yesterday at a premium of $44 a ton to the three-month contract, the highest level since Feb. 7. The so-called backwardation may signal supply concern.
“You’re looking at a market which looks a lot tighter than it was,” Deutsche Bank’s Brebner said. “It appears that the scarcity is creating a bit of a squeeze.”
Aluminum slipped 0.2 percent to $2,644 a ton and tin fell 0.6 percent to $31,370 a ton. Zinc fell 0.2 percent to $2,370 a ton and nickel lost 1.3 percent to $26,260 a ton.
To contact the reporter on this story: Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London at atroszkiewic@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net