Mississippi River water pouring through 11 gates on Louisiana’s Morganza floodway has greatly reduced the risk of flooding to oil refineries that account for about 14 percent of U.S. capacity. The diversion means the Mississippi has crested at about 17 feet in New Orleans, 2.5 feet below the forecast, and is expected to top out at 45 feet in Baton Rouge, below a record 47.5 expected by May 22, according to the U.S. Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center’s website. The levels probably won’t get much higher in those cities, even with the bulge of the Mississippi’s high water still days away, said Colonel Ed Fleming, district commander of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. That’s also welcome news for nine refineries between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. “With the opening of the floodgates, the major risk of impact to the big refineries on the river has reduced,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by New York-based Lawrence Eagles said in a report yesterday. “The diversion of water to the Atchafalaya River Basin has the potential to impact only one small oil refinery, which has been making preparations.” Anna Hrybyk, program manager in New Orleans with the environmental group Louisiana Bucket Brigade, said there was “definitely a sense of relief” for that city, “but also a real concern because although we have been spared, many others are losing their homes as we speak.” “I think we all understand this is a trade-off,” she said. River Still Rising With the river above record flood levels and still rising upstream at Vicksburg and Natchez, Mississippi, the Corps of Engineers began opening the 125-gate Morganza over the weekend, sending excess water down into the Atchafalaya River Basin, the heart of Louisiana’s Cajun country. The corps is monitoring the river flow at Louisiana’s Red River Landing to keep the Mississippi’s rate at 1.5 million cubic feet per second. The river’s crest there is still about five days away. About 2,500 people and 2,000 structures are within the spillway, with 22,500 people and 11,000 buildings vulnerable to the rising water in tributaries and bayous, according to Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Farm losses could total hundreds of millions of dollars, he said. Wells Threatened Inside the threatened area also are 2,264 oil or natural gas wells that each day produce 19,278 barrels of crude oil, about 10 percent of Louisiana’s onshore total, and 252.6 million cubic feet of gas, according to the state. The river had threatened to reach a flow rate of 1.62 million cubic feet per second unless water was diverted, putting in peril the levees at Baton Rouge, home to an estimated 229,000 people and industrial areas that include an Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) refinery, the second-largest U.S. facility. New Orleans has about 350,000 people still recovering from Hurricane Katrina five years ago. “It is for the greater good, 2 million people versus 25,000 people,” said Phil Grigsby, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Slidell, Louisiana. The weather service is predicting near-record flooding for towns along the Atchafalaya and surrounding wetlands. The Atchafalaya is expected to crest at Butte La Rose, about 40 miles west of Baton Rouge, on May 24 at 27 feet, according to the weather service. The record of 27.28 feet was set there on May 23, 1973. Morgan City-Bound The water from the Morganza is expected to reach Morgan City near the Gulf of Mexico later this week. The Atchafalaya is forecast to crest at 11 feet in Morgan City on May 25, above the record 10.53 feet in 1973, when Morganza was last opened. Each gate of the 57-year-old Morganza releases about 10,000 cubic feet per second. Water thunders through as a gate is opened, streaming white foam into a lake that has formed behind the spillway. Silvery fish about 20 inches long leap out of the water and fall back. The government moved a lot of people out of the spillway when it was built, said Mary Cole, 65, who was born and raised in Krotz Springs. Cole and her sister Patricia, 58, said they feel safe behind the levee across the street from Mary’s mobile home. However, Patricia said she won’t look at the Atchafalaya. “I’d rather not see it because then I’d start worrying about it,” Patricia said. Giant Watershed The Mississippi is the largest river system in the country and the third-largest watershed in the world, and drains 41 percent of the continental U.S., according to the corps. The river’s rising water, caused by heavy rain and snowmelt, has interrupted coal shipments to power plants in Tennessee, flooded more than 100,000 acres of Missouri cropland and forced thousands from their homes. The Coast Guard isn’t forecasting significant navigation restrictions in New Orleans, one of the most active U.S. ports. The opening of the Morganza spillway relieved pressure on the city’s levees, Chris Bonura, a spokesman for the Port of New Orleans, said yesterday. “That means you don’t have the situation where you are sandbagging or shutting down the flood gates,” Bonura said. “We’ve been dealing with the river at 17 feet for several days and they are holding steady and the situation is going to improve from there.” To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Baton Rouge at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net; Leela Landress in Houston at llandress@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net.

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