RTRS: FOREX-Euro holds near 1-mth high vs dlr before U.S. jobs
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - The euro hovered near a one-month high against the dollar on Friday as investors anticipated weak U.S. jobs data that could signal a protracted soft patch in the world's biggest economy and weigh further on the U.S. currency.
However, traders said the euro could struggle to make gains beyond the one-month high of $1.4518 hit in Asian trade, citing selling interest around that level, more ahead of an options barrier at $1.4550 and further offers around $1.4565-70.
They also said speculative short positions built up in anticipation of a weak U.S. payrolls number had become extended, risking a short-covering rally in the dollar.
"The risk is for a better number and that we see some profit-taking (on euro/dollar gains), but people will be looking to sell into any dollar strength," a London-based head of FX sales said.
Some analysts warned that if jobs creation was weaker than expected it could spark risk aversion in financial markets that would cause the dollar to fall against the yen and safe-haven Swiss franc but rise versus higher-risk currencies and the euro.
The consensus forecast has gradually dropped to payrolls growth of 150,000 in May from a forecast of 180,000, but traders said many in the market were expecting an even weaker reading. [ID:nN0118747]
The euro EUR= was steady at $1.4484 and seen supported by bids at $1.4455-60 and at $1.4405-10. Stop-loss bids were said to be lurking near $1.4520, just beyond the earlier high.
Payrolls expectations were lowered as a report earlier this week showed sharply slower growth in U.S. private-sector jobs.
"The data is likely to continue to point at a soft patch in the U.S. economy and could imply a risk-off scenario that would lead to dollar weakness against the Swiss franc and yen and strengthening against the Aussie, Canadian dollar and sterling," said Jeremy Stretch, currency analyst at CIBC.
"The reality is that the market is expecting jobs growth of around 100-120,000 and a reading of 150,000 could see some temporary easing of the depression surrounding the recovery scenario".
DOLLAR/YEN FALLS
Concerns about a weak U.S. jobs report helped drive the dollar to a three-week low versus the yen JPY= of 80.52 yen on EBS platform. Dollar/yen has dropped along with U.S. Treasury yields as U.S. data points to weakness in the economy.
The dollar was also pressured by Moody's Investors Service saying on Thursday there was a very small but rising risk of a short-lived U.S. default if there was no increase in the statutory debt limit in the coming weeks. [ID:nN02274698] [ID:nNWNA0100]
Concerns over U.S. debt and a weak U.S. economy are likely to keep the dollar weak. However, the euro may also be hampered by euro zone debt concerns which would limit euro/dollar gains.
Chart resistance lies near $1.4570, a 61.8 percent retracement of its slide in May on worries about possible restructuring of Greece's debt. Further resistance lies near $1.4710, a 76.4 percent retracement of that same drop.
Recent weak U.S. data has stirred market talk of more action by the Federal Reserve, which is due to end its $600 billion bond buying programme this month.
However, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, one of the Fed's most strident inflation hawks, told the Wall Street Journal the Fed has done enough to spur economic growth and new steps to boost the economy would be unwarranted. [ID:nL3E7H3016]
"Unless there is a truly extreme result, I don't think the market will get all excited about the chances for QE3 and further dollar weakness," said Makoto Noji, a senior bond and currency strategist for SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.
"Comments by policymakers will probably become a bigger focal point," Noji said.
The dollar held steady against a basket of major currencies at 74.344 .DXY =USD, having touched a one-month low around 74.210 earlier on Friday.