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RTRS: FOREX-Euro firm near 1-month high after consolidation
 
By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, June 7 (Reuters) - The euro held firm below a one-month high on Tuesday, though further climbs after a two-week rally may require clear signals from the European Central Bank later in the week that it plans to raise interest rates next month.

The euro slipped from Monday's one-month peak following comments from Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker that the common currency was overvalued. Others cited remarks from a spokesman for the German finance ministry that a second aid programme for Greece was not certain as weighing on the currency. [ID:nBRU011530].

Still, the common currency is being supported by growing expectations that Greece is likely to get a vital slice of aid in July to avoid default as policymakers hope to arrange a voluntary rollover of Greek debt.

In Asia, the euro gained 0.2 percent to $1.4600 EUR=, but was still off Monday's one-month peak of $1.4659.

"Those comments (from Juncker) probably weighed on the euro at the margins. But the direction of a weaker dollar is pretty clear at this point in time, so I'm expecting a bounce in the euro," said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

The euro has gained more than 4 percent since climbing off its May 23 trough. The immediate target for the common currency is $1.4732, a 78.6 percent retracement of its May 4 to May 23 fall.

A break of that level should take it back to the May 4 high around $1.4939, though many traders think the currency will need a signal from ECB chief Trichet that the institution is ready to raise rates in July.

But some market players were more cautious, saying the euro's downside potential is bigger as the market has almost priced in a July rate hike.

"While we think the main scenario is that Trichet will signal a July rate hike this week, we also feel that the market's expectations may have gone too far, raising the risk of a setback in the euro," said Yunosuke Ikeda, senior FX strategist at Nomura Securities.

On the downside, the first support is seen at $1.4568, a 61.8 percent retracement of its fall in May, ahead of $1.4370, its 55-day moving average.

With market views mixed on the euro, implied volatilities on euro/dollar options have eased as few market players see the need to hedge against sharp moves in the pair. One-month euro/dollar volatility slipped to around 11.40 percent EUR1MO=, near its lowest in a month.

BERNANKE IN FOCUS

While the euro slipped from a one-month peak, the dollar lacked momentum on its own, with the dollar index .DXY floating at 73.920, not far from a one-month low of 73.64 hit on Monday.

Worries about a faltering U.S. economy have boosted market expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates lower for longer, making the dollar an attractive funding currency.

A fall in U.S. shares to 2-½ month troughs is fanning expectations that the Fed is eager to keep rates low for a protracted period, with some market players even talking about the possibility of QE3 after the current asset buying programme, dubbed QE2, is completed at the end of this month.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking on the U.S. economic outlook at 3:45 p.m. in Atlanta (1945 GMT) on Tuesday, his first appearance after Friday's U.S. job data that cemented the view that the U.S. economy has hit a soft patch.

Against the yen, the dollar crept up to 80.10 yen JPY=, after a brief dip below 80.00 on Monday for the first time since May 5, helped by bids from Japanese importers.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.0685 AUD=D4, pulled further away from Friday's four-week high of $1.0775 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold and gave no hints of tightening in the immediate future.

Its statement surprised some market players by omitting a warning that policy would likely have to tighten in coming months to contain inflation, leading markets to trim the risk of a move in July or August.

The Aussie's fall lifted the euro/Aussie near a one-month high against the Australian dollar to A$1.3658 EURAUD=R, just shy of its 200-day moving average at $1.3669. (Additional reporting by Chikafumi Hodo and Ian Chua in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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