FX:LME MORNING - Metals pare losses but remain lower as Chinese data, patchy sentiment weighs
London 10/06/2011 - Base metals rose from earlier lows but remained generally depressed in Friday morning LME business in Europe, falling amid underwhelming Chinese import data earlier and still-fragile confidence in the state of the macroeconomic recovery.
Copper bounced back above $9,000 per tonne - it had fallen to a low of $8,988 earlier - and was last at $9,039.25, although still $15.75 lower. Prices fell to one-week lows of $8,932 per tonne in the previous session.
Data earlier today showed Chinese copper imports were 254,738 tonnes in May, down three percent from the previous month, and a massive 36 percent lower from the same month in 2010.
The pace of decline last month did slow from the 13.7 percent drop printed in April, however.
"The copper import figures looked weak, but the market had already priced this in," analyst Natalie Robertson of ANZ said. "The arbitrage between domestic and international prices has been closing, and stockpiles have fallen quite significantly."
Despite today's bearish import numbers, some analysts believe that Chinese metals off-take should accelerate during the second half of the year as real demand rises.
"Given the continued inventory drawdown at Chinese warehouses, particularly in copper and aluminum, consumers are likely to have to step up imports again," broker Credit Suisse noted.
Total import growth was solid, up 28.4 percent last month versus 21.8 percent in April, soothing immediate fears over a slowdown in the country's economy. Overall, data showed Beijing's trade surplus widen in May, to $13.04 billion from $11.4 billion in April due to rising export levels.
US trade numbers yesterday - which showed the deficit narrow to $43.7 billion from $48.2 billion previously - helped provide the base metals with traction in afternoon trading, easing concerns over the health of the economy there and revealing surging export levels in May.
Although the base metals continue to broadly consolidate, the complex remains at risk of a correction as underlying economic sentiment remains on thin ice, analysts said.
"Overall the metals remain in limbo, there are concerns over the handling of the EU debt, global growth and the ending of QE2, so it is not surprising prices are struggling on the upside," analyst William Adams of FastMarkets said.
"In addition, the rebound in the dollar is a negative for the metals as are the lower Chinese copper import numbers," he added. "On balance we favour further consolidation, but with a downside bias while the dollar remains upbeat."
This morning, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warned that nations who had failed to implement widescale structural reform programmes would suffer weak growth prospects moving forwards.
Today is light on the data front, with only US import price and Federal Budget balance numbers scheduled for release.
The dollar remained bubbly in morning business, edging to its highest since in more than week at 1.4440 against the euro. It has since pared gains at 1.4476, although still up a quarter of a cent on the day and remaining above the one-month low of 1.4695 seen at the start of the week.
EL TENIENTE SET TO RESUME FULL PRODUCTION AS INDUSTRIAL ACTION ENDS
Coldelco - the world's largest copper producer - has announced that production at its El Teniente division in Chile should reach full capacity as soon as tomorrow as an industrial dispute draws to a close.
Strike action - which began on May 25 - saw the run-rate drop as low as 40 percent on Wednesday. News reports have suggested around 7,000 tonnes of lost output at the 400,000-tonne-per-year mine.
Copper stocks rose a net 75 tonnes overnight to 477,925 tonnes, a new high since May 26, 2010, while cancelled warrants - the material booked for removal - rose 1,000 tonnes to 20,200 tonnes.
Aluminium, at $2,644.75 per tonne, was $15.25 cheaper. Inventories dropped 7,125 tonnes overnight to 4,645,925 tonnes - with the largest withdrawals made in Mobile and Detroit in the US. Cancelled warrants increased 4,275 tonnes to 527,050 tonnes.
Nickel recently traded at $23,096 per tonne, down $104 - it had risen to its most expensive for a week on Thursday at $23,200. Stocks fell 1,236 tonnes to 112,926 tonnes, the lowest since late-August 2009, although cancelled warrants dropped 1,020 tonnes to 5,808 tonnes.
Lead - which had risen to its highest since April 21 at $2,609 per tonne in the previous session - lost $18 to $2,591.
Tin gained $625 to $26,080 per tonne. Zinc was flat at $2,285.
Steel billet was indicated at $555/560 per tonne, up $2. Cobalt was indicated at $35,000/39,000, down $500, while molybdenum was offered but not bid at $37,500.
(Additional reporting by Perrine Faye and Gregory Holt. Editing by Martin Hayes)