Gold Daily Fundamental Analysis
Gold was marginally caught within a tight range on Thursday amid prevailing optimism that weakened the appeal of the metal and also with the dollar’s attempts to return to the upside after the unexpected strengthening manufacturing expansion.
The volatility remains evident for commodities affected by the dollar and the prevailing sentiment in the market. The confidence that Greece stepped away from the high risk of default is still pressuring gold lower even as investors awaited the second vote from the Greek parliament which was expected to pass, as the critical vote was on the austerity measures on Wednesday and already passed with 155 votes in the 300 seat parliament.
On Friday, the weak momentum for gold is expected to remain evident, especially with the end of the week position squaring and the needed correction. The manufacturing data from China to Europe and the United States are expected to increase the volatility and focus on the outlook for growth and might temper the gains for gold if haven demand was again directed to the dollar.
If the data come weaker than expected from China to the United States the dollar might be the winner and gold might be pressure, especially as slower Chinese growth might trim bets on rapid inflation and monetary tightening which is also downbeat on gold, yet haven demand will keep the metal floating as well offsetting any dollar strength.
Gold is to end the week on volatility and with choppy trading as the optimism slims gold’s appeal yet the upside move is still the favored option for the metal.
Crude Oil Daily Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil prices were little changed on Thursday hovering near the opening levels around $95 a barrel, where mixed data from the United States kept crude oil prices trading within a limited range, as jobless claims signaled an ongoing weakness in the labor market, while the Chicago PMI rose well above expectations.
We advise traders to remain cautious amid the huge uncertainty still surrounding the outlook, however, rising confidence in financial markets could still provide crude oil prices with more momentum to rise further, nonetheless, if pessimism is back to dominate markets, crude oil prices will drop back.
Friday July 01:
The U.S. will release the University of Michigan final estimate for consumer confidence in June at 13:55, where consumer confidence is expected to rise to 72.0 from 71.8.
The U.S. will end the week with manufacturing data at 14:00 GMT with the ISM Manufacturing for June which is expected to have eased to 51.8 from 53.5.
Natural Gas Daily Fundamental Analysis
Natural gas rose on Thursday after the EIA report showed natural gas inventories increased below expectations last week, where the EIA report showed that natural gas stockpiles increased by 78 billion cubic feet, compared with the prior increase of 98 BCF and below median estimates of 80 BCF.
We should expect the rise in natural gas prices to continue amid expectations of higher than average temperatures, which will probably push prices higher on speculations of rising demand for power-plant fuel
