RTRS: FOREX-Euro up for 1st week in four vs dollar, ECB ahead
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - The euro headed for its first weekly rise in four weeks against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but further gains looked limited by doubts Greece's debt crisis was over despite easing fears of an immediate default.
The European single currency earlier climbed to a three-week peak above $1.45, helped by an increase in risk appetite. It then retreated as traders squared positions ahead of the long holiday weekend in the United States.
The Greek parliament passed two crucial austerity bills this week, opening the way for international lenders to release a 12-billion-euro ($17 billion) loan installment that Athens urgently needs to stave off bankruptcy.
Uncertainty about the longer-term solution remained. Euro-zone finance ministers are scheduled to hold preliminary talks this weekend on the second financing package for Greece for 2011-2014, which could total up to 120 billion euros ($175 billion).
"We've gone from basically $1.41 to $1.45. I think that's a good level as far as the rebound is concerned," said Ronald Simpson, director of currency research at Action Economics in Tampa, Florida.
"I've heard talk yesterday and today of investment fund flows out of the euro over $1.45. I think the smart money is looking at levels to sell here now rather than buy."
The euro last traded little changed at $1.4508. It had earlier risen as high as $1.4553 EUR=EBS on trading platform EBS in a move that pushed through a big options barrier around $1.4550. At current prices, it's up 2.3 percent this week, on pace for its biggest weekly advance since January.
The euro hit a one-month high of 1.2325 Swiss francs EURCHF=EBS as investors cut back long positions in the safe-haven Swiss currency. It was last up 0.9 percent at 1.2295.
The dollar climbed 0.8 percent to 0.8466 franc CHF=EBS, moving further away from a lifetime low of 0.8276 set on EBS earlier in the week. Traders cited corporate-related demand from Swiss banks as driving the dollar higher.
ECB RATE VIEW
On the upside, euro resistance is seen at around $1.4570, the 61.8 percent retracement of the euro's fall from its high on May 4 to its low on May 23.
Support is seen around $1.4460, followed by levels around $1.4405, where its 55- and 21-day moving averages were located, traders said.
Some analysts said the market may start to rebuild long euro positions ahead of an expected interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank next Thursday, which would further move interest-rate differential in favor of the euro.
But Chris Walker currency strategist at UBS, cautioned that a lot will be contingent on economic conditions. A key survey showed on Friday the euro zone's manufacturing sector lost steam last month, while the region's weaker economies appear to be slipping back into recession [ID:nL3E7I11C0]
Markets are expecting ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet striking a hawkish tone after the meeting. However, they remain reluctant price in further tightening. See [ID:nL6E7I10UK]
"Feels like the euro is caught between reluctance to set up shorts before the ECB meeting, and the gentle reminder from the periphery PMI today that the last thing that is needed for a fragile periphery is a stronger euro," said Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York.
Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 80.79 yen JPY=, hitting a session peak of 81.152 on EBS after data showed the pace of growth in U.S. manufacturing picked up for the first time in four months in June. [ID:nN1E7600JI] (Editing by Andrew Hay)