Oil rose in New York, extending last week’s 4.2 percent rally, after Europe authorized a loan payout for Greece, easing speculation the country’s debt crisis will derail the region’s economic recovery. Futures climbed as much as 0.4 percent after European finance ministers authorized an 8.7 billion-euro ($12.6 billion) loan payout to Greece on July 2. Brent crude gained 0.1 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its estimate for the amount its price forecasts may fall following the International Energy Agency’s release of strategic stockpiles. “There’s optimism that problems are being solved and the world’s coming back into balance, and as a result of that, we’re going to need more primary inputs,” said Jonathan Barratt, a managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, who predicts oil will average $100 a barrel this year. Crude for August delivery rose as much as 40 cents to $95.34 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $95.24 at 1:45 p.m. Sydney time. The contract fell 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $94.94 on July 1, the first decline in four days. Prices are 32 percent higher the past year. Nymex floor trading is closed today for the July 4 holiday. Electronic trades will be booked with tomorrow’s transactions for settlement purposes. Brent oil for August settlement was at $111.84 a barrel, up 7 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract traded at a premium of $16.60 to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate. The spread reached a record $22.29 a barrel on June 15. Greece, IEA New York futures slumped 11 percent in the second quarter amid speculation Greece’s debt crisis threatened Europe’s economic revival. European officials have agreed to make the payout to Greece after the nation’s parliament passed austerity measures. Finance chiefs gather next week to tackle Greece’s long-term lifeline. Prices dropped 4.6 percent June 23 after the IEA said members will release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over 30 days to make up for a Libyan production shortfall. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate for the potential effect on prices of the release because the actual amount sold may be about 39 million barrels as some member countries plan to only reduce the stockholding requirements for refiners rather than sell actual supplies, according to a report by the bank dated July 1. Goldman Sachs Goldman’s estimate for Brent prices in 2011 may drop as much as $6 to $8 a barrel from its current forecast of $117 a barrel compared with a previous estimate of $10 to $12, according to the report. Prices next year may be revised $3 to $5 a barrel lower from its forecast of $130 a barrel. It had earlier said they may drop as much as $5 to $7 a barrel. Oil pared losses on July 1 after the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.3 from 53.5 in May. Economists projected a decrease to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Exxon Mobil Corp. reduced production at its refinery in Billings, Montana, and shut a pipeline after as much as 1,000 barrels of heavy crude leaked into the Yellowstone River. A team is investigating the cause of the spill that started late July 1, Exxon Mobil Pipeline Co. President Gary Pruessing said yesterday. To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

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