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FM:BASE METALS - European Opening View - Metals remain upbeat - at least for now
 
The metals had a mixed session on Friday, after the strong performance seen between Tuesday and Thursday, they ended Friday down an average by 0.4 percent, with aluminium, nickel, lead and tin dragging prices lower, while copper and zinc climbed around 0.6 percent. Given the generally weak dollar it is surprising the metals did not hold on to more of their gains

This morning the metals are up an average of 0.5 percent, zinc leads the advance with a 0.9 percent gain to $2,379, copper is up 0.3 percent to $9,490 and aluminium is up 0.1 percent at $2,511. Volumes have, however, been above average with 4,933 lots traded as of 07.20 BST, with the bulk of activity seen in copper that has traded 3,041 lots, see table on right for more details.

In Shanghai the September metals are up an average of 1.1 percent, zinc leads the advance with a 1.7 percent gain to Rmb 18,085, copper is up 1.3 percent at Rmb 70,690, lead is up 0.9 percent at Rmb 17,330 and aluminium is up 0.5 percent at Rmb 17,375. Spot copper in Changjiang has climbed 1.4 percent which has taken prices back over the Rmb 70,000 level to Rmb 70,550-70,900. The LME/Shanghai arb remains closed at minus $195/tonnes.

Equities – the Dow put in another strong performance of Friday, it closed up 1.4 percent and the stronger tone has flowed through to Asia where the Nikkei is up 1 percent, the Hang Seng and the MSCI Asia Apex are up 1.7 percent and China is up an impressive 2.3 percent - so a strong background.

The dollar is weak with the dollar index last at 74.24, the euro is at 1.4540, the aussie is strong at 1.0740, sterling is at 1.6090 and the yen is weaker at 80.75. Gold and silver are firmer at $1,494.80 and $34.10 respectively.

Economic data showed Japan’s monetary base climbed 17%, later we get EU Sentix investor confidence and PPI, followed by UK construction PMI, but with the US closed for 4th July, we expect the markets to be relatively quiet. Late Friday saw data on US total vehicle sales which dropped to 11.5 million units down from 11.8 million units.

Copper and lead prices look strong and seem to have good upside energy, the others have done well, but did show signs of pausing on Friday. On balance we do not have much faith in the foundations of this rally, we see it as relief rally and would not be surprised if it petered out fairly soon. Relief about Greek debt sparked the rally last week, but the Greek debt issue is back in the news today as the S&P rating agency said the EU financing package may be seen as a default. We expect Greek/EU debt to remain firmly in the spotlight.
Source