BLBG:Copper May Drop as U.S. Debt, China Price Concerns Dim Outlook
Copper may decline after U.S. President Barack Obama said the government is “running out of time” to cut the fiscal deficit and on speculation China may take more steps to curb property prices after home costs gained.
The metal for three-month delivery was little changed at $9,661 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange at 3:19 p.m. Shanghai time, erasing gains of as much as 0.7 percent earlier.
“Concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling and European debt crisis are curbing the advance of copper, even as industry participants expect Chinese demand to return in the second half,” said Li Ye, an analyst at Jiuheng Futures Co.
As negotiators near an Aug. 2 deadline for raising the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt ceiling, President Obama is pushing for a deal that will combine closing tax loopholes for the richest Americans and corporations with cuts to discretionary spending by government. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, told reporters his party wouldn’t accept any tax increases as they work with President Obama on a deal to lower deficits.
A U.S. debt default would cause panic throughout the financial system and long-term uncertainty, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN.
European leaders are holding a special summit this week as they seek to contain the region’s debt crisis, after eight of the region’s banks failed stress tests and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated the ECB won’t accept as collateral bonds from a nation that defaults.
China Home Prices
Metals prices are being “negatively impacted” by signs of economic slowdown in the U.S., countries sharing the euro and China, Citigroup Inc. said in a report. Global purchasing managers indexes, both for manufacturing and non-manufacturing, show a “synchronized slowdown,” Citigroup analyst Jon Bergtheil wrote in a report today.
Concern the crisis is spreading pushed the euro lower against the dollar, with the Dollar Index gaining as much as 0.7 percent to 75.613.
New home prices rose in 67 Chinese cities in June, with growth in Beijing and Shanghai accelerating, the statistics bureau said today. China’s cabinet said last week it will expand measures to rein in residential prices to smaller cities after limiting home purchases in metropolitan areas including Beijing and Shanghai.
China’s consumer price may increase by about 6.5 percent in July, Reuters reported today, citing Chen Dongqi, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission’s macroeconomic research institute.
Wagers Jump
Still, copper may rally to a record $12,000 a ton in the first quarter of next year as stronger-than-expected demand from China, the largest user, and tumbling inventories spur imports, said Ren Gang, head of research department at Maike Futures Co. Copper for September delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 0.3 percent higher at 71,840 yuan ($11,107) a ton.
Managed-money funds held net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices in copper, totaling 27,030 futures and options contracts as of July 12, jumping 23 percent from 21,901 a week earlier and the highest since April, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on July 15.
Aluminum in London gained 0.2 percent to $2,498 a ton, zinc rose 0.6 percent to $2,391 a ton and lead added 0.6 percent to $2,725 a ton. Nickel fell 0.3 percent $24,073 a ton, and tin shed 0.2 percent to $27,160 a ton.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net