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CK:Euro prospects dim despite Greek agreement
 
Antje Praefcke, analyst at Commerzbank, said: "It is now clear that Greece's financing gap will be entirely covered until 2014 by the EU, the IMF and a voluntary contribution by the private sector. The official side will provide roughly €109 billion (£96.3 million), the interest rates will be lowered to roughly 3.5% and the maturity of the bonds will be extended from seven and a half years to 15-30 years.

"The private sector is willing to contribute about €54 billion by exchanging bonds for longer maturities with lower interest rates and by buybacks."

While the general outcome seems positive and looks set to reassure the markets, some analysts argue the lack of extra funding for the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) could be a sticking point.

Ted Scott, director of global strategy at F&C investments, said: "With the eurozone ministers looking over a precipice at the meeting yesterday, they knew they had to put their differences aside and collectively agree a change in strategy or risk the demise of the eurozone and possibly the euro itself.

"In this respect for the first time they stepped up to the plate and took some necessary, but not sufficient measures to save the eurozone project."

Scott added that although the authorities have been proactive for the first time since the crisis erupted in spring 2010, there are still several outstanding issues from the current proposals.

"Overall the proposals from the summit are a substantial and important step towards fiscal union and integration that is necessary to achieve a comprehensive and permanent solution.

"Although the proposed measures should function well once passed by the respective parliaments, they need to become more scalable and this will become more evident over time as it becomes clear that the size of the debt in the periphery economies remains at dangerous levels."

Another vital factor to consider when assessing the future prospects of the euro is the slowdown that has been evident in the latest economic data releases coming out the region.

Purchasing managers' indices released on Thursday showed a marked decline in the activity of the manufacturing and services sectors, with core countries France and Germany effected as well as the peripheral nations.

And on Friday morning the German IFO business climate index came in softer than forecast and at the lowest level since October 2010.

Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, said the economic slowdown in the eurozone would continue to put downward pressure on the single currency.

In addition, the deficit reduction commitments made by non-bailout countries will lead to austerity measures that could keep the recovery muted for quite some time.

Spivak said: "This means even without accounting for the potential cost of any future bailouts that would increase the burden of a deficit-reduction efforts, the implied growth dynamics argue for European Central Bank monetary policy that is substantially more dovish than its major counterparts."

The ECB has been the first to start tightening monetary policy in the face of increased inflationary pressures and this has been supportive of the euro since the start of the year.

Spivak concluded: "Simply put, higher growth rates amount to stronger inflationary pressure and the prounouncements of EU officials yesterday effectively commit much of the eurozone to sub-par performance with little scope for rate hikes. Needless to say, this bodes ill for the single currency against the major currencies in the months ahead."

Source