RTRS:EURO GOVT-Bunds rally on U.S., euro zone debt worries
* Bunds rally, supported by worries over U.S., euro zone
debt
* Germany adds to implementation worries over Greece rescue
* Italy sells index-linked bonds, readies for Thurs BTP
auction
By Kirsten Donovan
LONDON , July 27 (Reuters) - German government bonds rose on
Wednesday, supported by doubts over whether measures to stem the
euro zone debt crisis were enough to stop contagion to the
region's larger economies and by the deadlock in talks on
raising the U.S. borrowing limit.
Although U.S. Treasuries have held up relatively well --
helped by the size of the market and widespread holdings -- risk
assets have come under pressure on worries the United States may
lose its triple-A credit rating even if a last-minute deal to
avoid a default is hammered out.
"After a downgrade, Treasuries would sell off, with a move
likely to be nearer 50 basis points than zero," said ING rate
strategist Padhraic Garvey.
"That would be a knee-jerk reaction and there'd be a flow
into Bunds, so the German/U.S. spread would widen by at least
that amount or more."
But Garvey said any sell-off would be short-lived with
Treasuries soon trading on U.S. growth and economic fundamentals
rather than the credit rating, much like Japanese government
bonds, which are rated in the double-A bracket.
"It won't change the fact that Treasuries are a global
benchmark and the dollar a global reserve currency, the trade
flows will dictate what you have to hold."
Deeply divided Republican and Democratic leaders are
scrambling to find common ground with less than a week before
the government hits its borrowing limit approved by Congress,
triggering a possible default that would rock global markets.
Serious discussions look to be delayed for several days
after Republicans pushed back a House of Representatives vote on
their plan originally expected for Wednesday.
The spread between 10-year Bunds and higher-yielding U.S.
Treasuries has widened more than 20 basis points over the last
month to 26 basis points as Bunds have outperformed.
September Bund futures were 57 ticks higher at
128.91, having hit a session high of 129.07. Ten-year German
yields were 4.5 bps lower at 2.69 percent.
Futures broke above 128.45 -- the 62 percent retracement of
last week's sell off -- in early trade, to test the 76 percent
retracement at 128.94.
Last week's plan to help Greece and stem contagion to other
euro zone states provided only limited relief to markets. Bunds
as well as Spanish and Italian bond yields are back around
levels seen before details of the rescue plan were leaked.
"Lack of detail and implementation risks (for the Greek
package), as well as the U.S. debt ceiling debate nearing its
deadline should keep markets tending towards 'risk off' mode
today," Commerzbank rate strategist Benjamin Schroeder said.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Berlin was
against giving the euro zone's rescue fund carte blanche to buy
bonds on the secondary market while Slovakia's
junior government party has said it is against increasing the
size of the bailout fund .
Spanish 10-year bond yields were 7 bps higher
at 6.04 percent, with equivalent Italian yields up
13 bps at 5.77 percent.
Italy sold 942 million euros of euro zone index-linked
bonds, the second of three sales totalling around 10 billion
euros this week with yields up more than 150
basis points from the previous sale in May.
"The increase in yield...is larger than that observed in the
same period on nominal bonds of the same maturity because...in
times of market stress, investors prefer to hold nominal
bonds...because (they) have a larger cash flow at maturity,"
said UniCredit rate strategist Chiara Cremonesi.
But the main test of market appetite this week comes on
Thursday with a 6.5 billion euro three- and 10-year BTP sale.
Credit Agricole rate strategist Peter Chatwell said the
auction should find support from Italian redemption cash flows
on Aug. 1, and large index extensions generating demand for
longer-dated paper.
"I expect the BTP auctions to find sufficient demand
tomorrow, but trading will be very nervous ahead of the sale,
Chatwell said.
"There is probably still too much uncertainty surrounding
the euro zone debt crisis and U.S. debt ceiling saga for the
auctions to be strong."
But one trader said it was wrong to gauge market sentiment
from auction results.
"The market perception of auctions as a test of sentiment is
wrong as the primary dealers have a gun to their head to take
down the paper," the trader said.