Despite an unexpected deterioration in macro indicators in developed markets, Goldman Sachs believes commodity prices will hold up over the coming year.
"We maintain that commodity markets will continue to tighten as long as global economic growth remains broadly positive and the (emerging market) economies in particular continue to perform, which remains the mainline view,” said Alison Nathan, a senior energy economist at Goldman Sachs in New York in a research note on Monday.
"We maintain our recommended long positions in key cyclical commodities, including Brent crude oil [LCOCV1 106.69 -2.68 (-2.45%) ], copper [HGCV1 4.064 -0.053 (-1.29%) ] and soybeans[SCV1 1319.50 -16.50 (-1.24%) ] and our overweight recommendation for commodities.
The sharp sell-off in recent days only reinforces this view, according to Nathan.
"Rising risk of a negative global event increases the risk to our constructive views and reinforces our conviction in long gold [GCCV1 1705.00 53.20 (+3.22%) ]," she said.
"The growth downgrades suggest that the upside risk skew to our price forecasts has been slightly reduced, all else equal. Further, a global negative event would clearly be negative for all cyclical assets. The rising risk of such an event increases the downside risk around our constructive views and reinforces our conviction in our long gold recommendation," said Nathan.
